Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat (HYMC) Fair Value 2026

HYMC · Gold and Silver Ores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat (HYMC) trades at $20.43, approximately 178% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.36. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HYMC
Price
$20.43
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +57.1% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$7.36 -64.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$15.54 -23.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$9.74 -52.3%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$32.09 +57.1%

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What Is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat (HYMC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat at its current price of $20.43. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $14.38 (-29.6% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $32.09 (+57.1%), versus ML-RIV at $0.55 (-97.3%). This +154.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HYMC?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HYMC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HYMC's intrinsic value at $7.36, implying -64.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HYMC Rank in Gold and Silver Ores?

Among 64 Gold and Silver Ores stocks, HYMC ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold and Silver Ores Stocks →

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HYMC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HYMC a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat's fundamental quality profile registers 5.0/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +154.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HYMC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HYMC's 10 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold and Silver Ores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Gold and Silver Ores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: FSM · NEM · DRD · AU · HMY

See all Gold and Silver Ores stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat

What is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat (HYMC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.36. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HYMC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.43, 3 of 10 active models suggest HYMC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat's business model in Gold and Silver Ores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for HYMC?

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat's QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HYMC?

CirclFi analyzes HYMC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HYMC a value trap in 2026?

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporat's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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