EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Fair Value 2026

EME · Engineering & Construction ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) trades at $775.04, versus a $531.62 median fair value across its 10 active models — 31.4% below the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $598.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
EME
Price
$775.04
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $531.62, 31.4% below the current price of $775.04. Estimates range from $147.04 to $1295.47. EME scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. EME’s -31.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Engineering & Construction sector median is -33.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy EMCOR Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EME?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($775.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $598.06 -22.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $207.57 -73.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $465.19 -40.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $767.32 -1.0%
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What Is EME's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $147.04 to $1295.47

CirclFi's 10 active models place EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) between $147.04 and $1295.47 per share, a spread of 216% of the median. The median of that range — $531.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EME, against a current price of $775.04.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$147.04median $531.62$1295.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$147.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1295.47
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EME. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EME, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on EMCOR Group, Inc. at its current price of $775.04. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $531.62 (-31.4% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $1,295.47 (+67.1%), versus Markov DDM at $147.04 (-81.0%). This +148.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About EME?

10 of 13 models are currently active for EME. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EME is $531.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $598.06 on its own, implying -22.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EME Rank in Engineering & Construction?

Among 53 Engineering & Construction stocks, EME ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places EME in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Engineering & Construction Stocks →

As a industrial enterprise, EMCOR Group, Inc. operates in a sector where order backlog depth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating EME should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is EME a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EME a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for EMCOR Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, EMCOR Group, Inc. is rated at 9.4/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EME valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EME's 10 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy EMCOR Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Engineering & Construction Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Engineering & Construction stocks with 13-model coverage

IESCIES Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4AGXArgan, Inc.QOC 9.0STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 9.5MYRGMYR Group Inc.QOC 8.7FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6DYDycom Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.QOC 8.2ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9FGLFounder Group LimitedQOC 5.2

Read investment analysis: IESC · AGX · STRL · MYRG · FIX · DY · BWMN · ORN · FGL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EME?

7 companies across all industries closest to EME’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.QOC 9.4TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4JFINJiayin Group Inc.QOC 9.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4ADBEAdobe Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ONTO · TT · RMD · JFIN · BUKS · ADBE · NVDA

Where Does EME Sit in CirclFi's Engineering & Construction Rankings?

EME is ranked against every other Engineering & Construction stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Engineering & Construction stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About EMCOR Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is EMCOR Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)'s intrinsic value at $531.62 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $147.04 to $1295.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $598.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EME overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $775.04, 1 of 10 active models suggest EME may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $531.62, 31.4% below the current price of $775.04 — a consensus view that EME is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits EMCOR Group, Inc.'s business model in Engineering & Construction.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for EME?

EMCOR Group, Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EME?

CirclFi analyzes EME with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EME?

Of the 10 models currently active on EME, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1295.47 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $147.04. CirclFi's published fair value for EME is the median of that range, $531.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 216% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EME a value trap in 2026?

EMCOR Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) has a median fair value of $531.62 — 31.4% below the current price of $775.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EME/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EME valuation
  • Financial statements: EMCOR Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000105634) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EME as of ; valuations recomputed .

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