Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Fair Value 2026

WMS · Plastics Foam Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) trades at $147.66, approximately 23% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $120.18. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
WMS
Price
$147.66
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($147.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $120.18 -18.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $32.34 -78.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $83.30 -43.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $204.49 +38.5%

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What Is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $95.66, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $147.66. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-35.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +38.5% (fair value: $204.49), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.3% ($3.93). The spread between these extremes — +135.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WMS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for WMS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates WMS's intrinsic value at $120.18, implying -18.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WMS Rank in Plastics Foam Products?

Among 1 Plastics Foam Products stocks, WMS ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places WMS in the top tier.

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is WMS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WMS a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. is rated at 10.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WMS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WMS's 13 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Frequently Asked Questions About Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

What is Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $120.18. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WMS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $147.66, 2 of 13 active models suggest WMS may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s business model in Plastics Foam Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for WMS?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WMS?

CirclFi analyzes WMS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is WMS a value trap in 2026?

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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