Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Fair Value 2026

CENX · Aluminum ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Century Aluminum Company (CENX) trades at $46.59, versus a $25.89 median fair value across its 6 active models — 44.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CENX
Price
$46.59
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Century Aluminum Company (CENX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $25.89, 44.4% below the current price of $46.59. Estimates range from $9.46 to $157.22. CENX scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CENX’s -44.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Century Aluminum Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CENX?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $27.69 -40.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $24.09 -48.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.46 -79.7%
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What Is CENX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $9.46 to $157.22

CirclFi's 6 active models place Century Aluminum Company (CENX) between $9.46 and $157.22 per share, a spread of 571% of the median. The median of that range — $25.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CENX, against a current price of $46.59.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$9.46median $25.89$157.22
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$9.46
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$157.22
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CENX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CENX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Century Aluminum Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $25.89. Trading at $46.59, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -44.4%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $157.22 (+237.5%), versus EROIC at $9.46 (-79.7%). This +317.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CENX?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CENX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CENX is $25.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CENX Rank in Aluminum?

Among 4 Aluminum stocks, CENX ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places CENX in the top tier.

Century Aluminum Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CENX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CENX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Century Aluminum Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Century Aluminum Company earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +317.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CENX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CENX's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Century Aluminum Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aluminum Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Aluminum stocks with 13-model coverage

KALUKaiser Aluminum CorporationQOC 8.3AAAlcoa CorporationQOC 8.1CSTMConstellium SEQOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: KALU · AA · CSTM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CENX?

7 companies across all industries closest to CENX’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

BACBank of America CorporationQOC 8.0WLYBJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.QOC 8.0KEYKeyCorpQOC 8.0FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.QOC 8.0CRECre8 Enterprise LimitedQOC 8.0WLYJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BAC · WLYB · KEY · FFBC · CRE · WLY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Century Aluminum Company’s Valuation?

What is Century Aluminum Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Century Aluminum Company (CENX)'s intrinsic value at $25.89 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.46 to $157.22. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CENX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.59, 1 of 6 active models suggest CENX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $25.89, 44.4% below the current price of $46.59 — a consensus view that CENX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Century Aluminum Company's business model in Aluminum.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for CENX?

Century Aluminum Company's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CENX?

CirclFi analyzes CENX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CENX?

Of the 6 models currently active on CENX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $157.22 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $9.46. CirclFi's published fair value for CENX is the median of that range, $25.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 571% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CENX a value trap in 2026?

Century Aluminum Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Century Aluminum Company (CENX) has a median fair value of $25.89 — 44.4% below the current price of $46.59 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CENX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CENX valuation
  • Financial statements: Century Aluminum Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000949157) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CENX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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