Alcoa Corporation (AA) Fair Value 2026

AA · Aluminum ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alcoa Corporation (AA) trades at $50.32, versus a $29.04 median fair value across its 11 active models — 42.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AA
Price
$50.32
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +32.1% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alcoa Corporation (AA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $29.04, 42.3% below the current price of $50.32. Estimates range from $3.00 to $66.49. AA scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AA’s -42.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alcoa Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($50.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.15 -83.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.53 -51.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $66.49 +32.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.53 -27.4%
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What Is AA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $3.00 to $66.49

CirclFi's 11 active models place Alcoa Corporation (AA) between $3.00 and $66.49 per share, a spread of 219% of the median. The median of that range — $29.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AA, against a current price of $50.32.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$3.00median $29.04$66.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.00
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$66.49
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alcoa Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $29.04. Trading at its current price of $50.32, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -42.3%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +32.1% (fair value: $66.49), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -94.0% ($3.00). The spread between these extremes — +126.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AA is $29.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AA Rank in Aluminum?

Among 4 Aluminum stocks, AA ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AA in the top tier.

Alcoa Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AA a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Alcoa Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alcoa Corporation earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +126.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AA's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alcoa Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aluminum Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Aluminum stocks with 13-model coverage

KALUKaiser Aluminum CorporationQOC 8.3CENXCentury Aluminum CompanyQOC 8.0CSTMConstellium SEQOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: KALU · CENX · CSTM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AA?

7 companies across all industries closest to AA’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

PERFPerfect Corp.QOC 8.1UNBUnion Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.1CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1SIRISirius XM Holdings Inc.QOC 8.1CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.1XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PERF · UNB · CWT · SIRI · CEPU · XHR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alcoa Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Alcoa Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alcoa Corporation (AA)'s intrinsic value at $29.04 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.00 to $66.49. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $50.32, 2 of 11 active models suggest AA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $29.04, 42.3% below the current price of $50.32 — a consensus view that AA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alcoa Corporation's business model in Aluminum.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AA?

Alcoa Corporation's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AA?

CirclFi analyzes AA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AA?

Of the 11 models currently active on AA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $66.49 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.00. CirclFi's published fair value for AA is the median of that range, $29.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 219% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AA a value trap in 2026?

Alcoa Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alcoa Corporation (AA) has a median fair value of $29.04 — 42.3% below the current price of $50.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AA valuation
  • Financial statements: Alcoa Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001675149) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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