Constellium SE (CSTM) Fair Value 2026

CSTM · Secondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Constellium SE (CSTM) trades at $29.16, approximately 26% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $39.59. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSTM
Price
$29.16
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +35.8% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$39.59 +35.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$3.95 -86.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$23.91 -18.0%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$6.80 -76.7%

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What Is Constellium SE (CSTM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Constellium SE at its current price of $29.16. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $20.53 (-29.6% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $39.59 (+35.8%), versus RCMH-DCF at $0.42 (-98.6%). This +134.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CSTM?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CSTM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CSTM's intrinsic value at $39.59, implying +35.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSTM Rank in Secondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals?

Among 2 Secondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals stocks, CSTM ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Secondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals space, Constellium SE competes in an environment where organic revenue growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CSTM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSTM a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Constellium SE. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Constellium SE is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +134.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSTM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSTM's 13 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Constellium SE Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Constellium SE

What is Constellium SE's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Constellium SE (CSTM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $39.59. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSTM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.16, 5 of 13 active models suggest CSTM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Constellium SE's business model in Secondary Smelting & Refining of Nonferrous Metals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for CSTM?

Constellium SE's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSTM?

CirclFi analyzes CSTM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CSTM a value trap in 2026?

Constellium SE's Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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