Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Fair Value 2026

SPH · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) trades at $17.57, versus a $26.40 median fair value across its 11 active models — 50.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPH
Price
$17.57
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +52.5% upside with 77% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $26.40, 50.3% above the current price of $17.57. Estimates range from $11.97 to $47.39. SPH scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SPH’s +50.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPH?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.97 -31.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.79 +52.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $25.53 +45.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.24 -18.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is SPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $11.97 to $47.39

CirclFi's 11 active models place Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) between $11.97 and $47.39 per share, a spread of 134% of the median. The median of that range — $26.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPH, against a current price of $17.57.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$11.97median $26.40$47.39
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$11.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$47.39
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $26.40. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $17.57 (implied upside of +50.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +169.7% (fair value: $47.39), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -31.8% ($11.97). The spread between these extremes — +201.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SPH?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SPH. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPH is $26.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.97 on its own, implying -31.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPH Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, SPH ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Gas space, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPH a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +201.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPH's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9NINiSource Inc.QOC 7.8UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9OPALOPAL Fuels Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: ATO · NI · UGI · SR · NJR · BIPC · RGCO · NWN · OPAL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPH’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

CMPRCimpress plcQOC 7.8TZOOTravelzooQOC 7.8CFBKCF Bankshares Inc.QOC 7.8CLBCore Laboratories Inc.QOC 7.8GLOBGlobant S.A.QOC 7.8TRUTransUnionQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CMPR · TZOO · CFBK · CLB · GLOB · TRU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.’s Valuation?

What is Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH)'s intrinsic value at $26.40 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.97 to $47.39. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.57, 8 of 11 active models suggest SPH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $26.40, 50.3% above the current price of $17.57 — a consensus view that SPH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for SPH?

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPH?

CirclFi analyzes SPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPH?

Of the 11 models currently active on SPH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $47.39 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $11.97. CirclFi's published fair value for SPH is the median of that range, $26.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 134% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPH a value trap in 2026?

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) has a median fair value of $26.40 — 50.3% above the current price of $17.57 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001005210) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SPH.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for SPH Unlock All 11 — $39/mo