NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) Fair Value 2026

NCSM · Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) trades at $44.34, approximately 44% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $30.82. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NCSM
Price
$44.34
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$30.82 -30.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$30.20 -31.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$40.26 -9.2%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$33.10 -25.4%

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What Is NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. at its current price of $44.34. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $37.97 (-14.4% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $58.21 (+31.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $22.50 (-49.3%). This +80.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NCSM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NCSM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NCSM's intrinsic value at $30.82, implying -30.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NCSM Rank in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks, NCSM ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places NCSM in the top tier.

As a energy producer, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where production decline rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NCSM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NCSM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NCSM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NCSM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NCSM's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.

What is NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $30.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NCSM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.34, 4 of 11 active models suggest NCSM may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for NCSM?

NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NCSM?

CirclFi analyzes NCSM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NCSM a value trap in 2026?

NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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