LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Fair Value 2026

LPLA · Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) trades at $321.06, approximately 133% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $137.65. QOC: 8.1/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LPLA
Price
$321.06
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($321.06)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$137.65 -57.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$112.01 -65.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$175.35 -45.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$210.39 -34.5%

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What Is LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $171.34, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $321.06. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-46.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $380.30 (+18.5%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $18.34 (-94.3%). This +112.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LPLA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LPLA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LPLA's intrinsic value at $137.65, implying -57.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LPLA Rank in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services?

Among 14 Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services stocks, LPLA ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places LPLA in the top tier.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LPLA a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for LPLA. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for LPL Financial Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LPLA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LPLA's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LPL Financial Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

What is LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $137.65. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LPLA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $321.06, 1 of 12 active models suggest LPLA may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s business model in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for LPLA?

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LPLA?

CirclFi analyzes LPLA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LPLA a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for LPLA at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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