Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) Fair Value 2026

HLX · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) trades at $10.14, versus a $11.61 median fair value across its 12 active models — 14.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLX
Price
$10.14
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +269.9% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $11.61, 14.5% above the current price of $10.14. Estimates range from $1.41 to $37.51. HLX scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HLX’s +14.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.06 -0.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.41 -86.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.44 +2.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $37.51 +269.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is HLX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.41 to $37.51

CirclFi's 12 active models place Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) between $1.41 and $37.51 per share, a spread of 311% of the median. The median of that range — $11.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLX, against a current price of $10.14.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$1.41median $11.61$37.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.41
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$37.51
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $10.14. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $11.61 (+14.5% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $37.51 (+269.9%), versus EPV at $1.41 (-86.1%). This +356.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HLX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HLX. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLX is $11.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.06 on its own, implying -0.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLX Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, HLX ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places HLX in the top tier.

The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc., metrics like production decline rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HLX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +356.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLX's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

NGSNatural Gas Services Group, Inc.QOC 8.3NOVNOV Inc.QOC 8.0RESRPC, Inc.QOC 8.3SLBSLB N.V.QOC 8.0RNGRRanger Energy Services, Inc.QOC 8.3FLOCFlowco Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0SNDSmart Sand, Inc.QOC 7.5RCONRecon Technology, Ltd.QOC 5.7FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: NGS · NOV · RES · SLB · RNGR · FLOC · SND · RCON · FTI · WHD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLX?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLX’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

PACGrupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.0AXRAMREP CorporationQOC 8.0AVOMission Produce, Inc.QOC 8.0WEXWEX Inc.QOC 8.0CMSCMS Energy CorporationQOC 8.0UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PAC · AXR · AVO · WEX · CMS · UNH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX)'s intrinsic value at $11.61 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.41 to $37.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.14, 7 of 12 active models suggest HLX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $11.61, 14.5% above the current price of $10.14 — a consensus view that HLX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for HLX?

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLX?

CirclFi analyzes HLX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLX?

Of the 12 models currently active on HLX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $37.51 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.41. CirclFi's published fair value for HLX is the median of that range, $11.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 311% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLX a value trap in 2026?

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX) has a median fair value of $11.61 — 14.5% above the current price of $10.14 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLX valuation
  • Financial statements: Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000866829) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLX as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on HLX.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for HLX Unlock All 12 — $39/mo