The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Fair Value 2026

BWIN · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-09-15, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) trades at $32.49, versus a $52.66 median fair value across its 2 active models — 62.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BWIN
Price
$32.49
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +108.4% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $52.66, 62.1% above the current price of $32.49. Estimates range from $37.62 to $67.71. BWIN scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.5% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,795 rated companies as of 2026-09-15. BWIN’s +62.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -10.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BWIN?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $67.71 +108.4%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $37.62 +15.8%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $52.66. At a current market price of $32.49, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +62.1%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +108.4% (fair value: $67.71), while FTNN is the most conservative at +15.8% ($37.62). The spread between these extremes — +92.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BWIN?

2 of 13 models are currently active for BWIN. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BWIN is $52.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BWIN Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 23 Insurance Brokers stocks, BWIN ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

The Insurance Brokers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to underwriting business businesses. For The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc., metrics like reserve adequacy provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BWIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BWIN a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. scores 6.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BWIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BWIN's 2 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

ARXAccelerant HoldingsQOC 6.1ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.QOC 5.5EHTHeHealth, Inc.QOC 7.2AIFUAIFU Inc.QOC 5.2HUIZHuize Holding LimitedQOC 7.3XHGXChange TEC.INCQOC 4.3CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1AONAon plcQOC 8.2NPNeptune Insurance Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: ARX · ZBAO · EHTH · AIFU · HUIZ · XHG · CRVL · AON · NP · ERIE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BWIN?

7 companies across all industries closest to BWIN’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

MNTRMentor Capital, Inc.QOC 6.0AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0SCWO374Water Inc.QOC 6.0OESXOrion Energy Systems, Inc.QOC 6.0TISITeam, Inc.QOC 6.0VALNValneva SEQOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MNTR · AIDX · SCWO · OESX · TISI · VALN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN)'s intrinsic value at $52.66 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-09-15, ranging from $37.62 to $67.71. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BWIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.49, 2 of 2 active models suggest BWIN may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $52.66, 62.1% above the current price of $32.49 — a consensus view that BWIN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for BWIN?

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BWIN?

CirclFi analyzes BWIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BWIN a value trap in 2026?

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) has a median fair value of $52.66 — 62.1% above the current price of $32.49 — as of 2026-09-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BWIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BWIN valuation
  • Financial statements: The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001781755) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BWIN as of ; valuations recomputed .