Arko Corp. (ARKO) Fair Value 2026

ARKO · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Arko Corp. (ARKO) trades at $4.46, versus a $4.15 median fair value across its 8 active models — 7.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARKO
Price
$4.46
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +5.8% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Arko Corp. (ARKO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Arko Corp. (ARKO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $4.15, within 7.0% of the current price of $4.46. Estimates range from $0.67 to $17.13. ARKO scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARKO’s -7.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Arko Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARKO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.72 +5.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.58 -19.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.67 -84.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.85 -58.5%
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What Is ARKO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.67 to $17.13

CirclFi's 8 active models place Arko Corp. (ARKO) between $0.67 and $17.13 per share, a spread of 397% of the median. The median of that range — $4.15 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARKO, against a current price of $4.46.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$0.67median $4.15$17.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.67
Most bullish modelPWERM$17.13
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARKO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARKO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Arko Corp. (ARKO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Arko Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.15, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $4.46. With a median implied return of -7.0% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +369.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +284.2% (fair value: $17.13), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -84.9% ($0.67). The spread between these extremes — +369.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ARKO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ARKO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARKO is $4.15 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARKO Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, ARKO ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Specialty Retail space, Arko Corp. competes in an environment where gross margin expansion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ARKO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARKO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Arko Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Arko Corp. is rated at 7.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +369.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARKO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARKO's 8 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Arko Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

RHRHQOC 7.5GMEGameStop Corp.QOC 7.5EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8SVVSavers Value Village, Inc.QOC 7.2MUSAMurphy USA Inc.QOC 7.8RECTRectitude Holdings LtdQOC 7.2BQBoqii Holding LimitedQOC 5.9GHSTGHST World Inc.QOC 4.7CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: RH · GME · EYE · SVV · MUSA · RECT · BQ · GHST · CASY · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARKO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARKO’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5MBUUMalibu Boats, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MUR · AMRC · DVA · ELPC · TWIN · MBUU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Arko Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Arko Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Arko Corp. (ARKO)'s intrinsic value at $4.15 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.67 to $17.13. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARKO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.46, 4 of 8 active models suggest ARKO may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $4.15, within 7.0% of the current price of $4.46 — a consensus view that ARKO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Arko Corp.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for ARKO?

Arko Corp.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARKO?

CirclFi analyzes ARKO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARKO?

Of the 8 models currently active on ARKO, PWERM is the most bullish at $17.13 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.67. CirclFi's published fair value for ARKO is the median of that range, $4.15, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 397% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARKO a value trap in 2026?

Arko Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Arko Corp. (ARKO) has a median fair value of $4.15 — within 7.0% of the current price of $4.46 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARKO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARKO valuation
  • Financial statements: Arko Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001823794) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARKO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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