SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Fair Value 2026

SIRI · Radio Broadcasting Stations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) trades at $30.67, approximately 14% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $35.64. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SIRI
Price
$30.67
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +267.7% upside with 76% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$35.64 +16.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$112.78 +267.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$45.91 +49.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$7.63 -75.1%

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What Is SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SiriusXM Holdings Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $30.67. Based on our 13-model framework, SiriusXM Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $44.35 — representing +44.6% implied upside — with 9 out of 12 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: EPV targets $112.78 (+267.7%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $5.35 (-82.5%). This +350.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SIRI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SIRI. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SIRI's intrinsic value at $35.64, implying +16.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SIRI Rank in Radio Broadcasting Stations?

Among 10 Radio Broadcasting Stations stocks, SIRI ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Radio Broadcasting Stations space, SiriusXM Holdings Inc. competes in an environment where fiber/5G penetration often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is SIRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SIRI a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for SiriusXM Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, SiriusXM Holdings Inc. is rated at 7.5/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +350.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SIRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SIRI's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SiriusXM Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Radio Broadcasting Stations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Radio Broadcasting Stations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: TME · SPOT · SGA · TSQ · IHRT

Frequently Asked Questions About SiriusXM Holdings Inc.

What is SiriusXM Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $35.64. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SIRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.67, 10 of 12 active models suggest SIRI may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SiriusXM Holdings Inc.'s business model in Radio Broadcasting Stations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for SIRI?

SiriusXM Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SIRI?

CirclFi analyzes SIRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SIRI a value trap in 2026?

SiriusXM Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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