Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) Fair Value 2026

SEED · Agricultural Inputs ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (60/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) trades at $0.99. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 60/100 (DANGER). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SEED
Price
$0.99
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
60/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +53.6% upside with 29% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 60 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SEED?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $1.52 +53.6%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Origin Agritech Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.52. At a current market price of $0.99, 1 of 1 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +53.6%.

What Do the Models Say About SEED?

1 of 13 models are currently active for SEED. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SEED Rank in Agricultural Inputs?

Among 16 Agricultural Inputs stocks, SEED ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Origin Agritech Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SEED a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SEED a score of 60/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Origin Agritech Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Origin Agritech Limited is rated at 5.5/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. Notably, value trap risk is elevated.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SEED valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SEED's 1 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Origin Agritech Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Agricultural Inputs Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Agricultural Inputs stocks with 13-model coverage

PUBCPureBase CorporationQOC 5.5VRDRVerde Resources, Inc.QOC 5.4AVDAmerican Vanguard CorporationQOC 6.0GNVRGenvor IncorporatedQOC 3.8FMCFMC CorporationQOC 6.2NXTSNexentis Technologies Inc.QOC 3.6ICLICL Group LtdQOC 2.6MOSThe Mosaic CompanyQOC 7.6BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.QOC 6.4CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.4UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: PUBC · VRDR · AVD · GNVR · FMC · NXTS · ICL · MOS · BIOX · CF · UAN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SEED?

7 companies across all industries closest to SEED’s Quality of Company score of 5.5/10.

GTHPGuided Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.5BOTYLingerie Fighting Championships, Inc.QOC 5.5LVWRLiveWire Group, Inc.QOC 5.5VIVKVivakor, Inc.QOC 5.5ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.QOC 5.5ELMEElme CommunitiesQOC 5.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GTHP · BOTY · LVWR · VIVK · ZBAO · ELME · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Origin Agritech Limited’s Valuation?

What is Origin Agritech Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Origin Agritech Limited (SEED). The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SEED overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.99, 1 of 1 active models suggest SEED may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Origin Agritech Limited's business model in Agricultural Inputs.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for SEED?

Origin Agritech Limited's QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SEED?

CirclFi analyzes SEED with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SEED a value trap in 2026?

Origin Agritech Limited's Value Trap score is 60/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) a Quality of Company score of 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SEED/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SEED valuation
  • Financial statements: Origin Agritech Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001321851) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SEED as of ; valuations recomputed .