Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) Fair Value 2026

GROY · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) trades at $2.97, versus a $0.78 median fair value across its 10 active models — 73.6% below the current price. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
GROY
Price
$2.97
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $0.78, 73.6% below the current price of $2.97. Estimates range from $0.19 to $2.04. GROY scores 5.5/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GROY’s -73.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -19.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gold Royalty Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GROY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.97)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.53 -82.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.86 -71.1%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $0.65 -78.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.71 -76.1%
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What Is GROY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.19 to $2.04

CirclFi's 10 active models place Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) between $0.19 and $2.04 per share, a spread of 235% of the median. The median of that range — $0.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GROY, against a current price of $2.97.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Regime Cross
$0.19median $0.78$2.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.19
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.04
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GROY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GROY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gold Royalty Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.78, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $2.97. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-73.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $2.04 (-31.5%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $0.19 (-93.5%). This +62.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Gold Royalty Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GROY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GROY. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GROY is $0.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.53 on its own, implying -82.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GROY Rank in Gold?

Among 59 Gold stocks, GROY ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Gold Royalty Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GROY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GROY a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Gold Royalty Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Gold Royalty Corp. is rated at 5.5/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +62.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GROY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GROY's 10 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gold Royalty Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

DCDakota Gold Corp.QOC 5.5CTGOContango Silver & Gold Inc.QOC 5.3IAUXi-80 Gold Corp.QOC 5.5THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd.QOC 5.2VGZVista Gold Corp.QOC 5.6PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp.QOC 5.2MAGEMagellan Copper and Gold Corp.QOC 3.6AAUCAllied Gold CorporationQOC 2.6CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: DC · CTGO · IAUX · THM · VGZ · PZG · MAGE · AAUC · CGAU · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GROY?

7 companies across all industries closest to GROY’s Quality of Company score of 5.5/10.

SEEDOrigin Agritech LimitedQOC 5.5RDIReading International, Inc.QOC 5.5CRTDCreatd, Inc.QOC 5.5PWDYPowerdyne International, Inc.QOC 5.5SUNESUNation Energy Inc.QOC 5.5SLRCSLR Investment Corp.QOC 5.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SEED · RDI · CRTD · PWDY · SUNE · SLRC · NVDA

Where Does GROY Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

GROY is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gold Royalty Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Gold Royalty Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)'s intrinsic value at $0.78 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.19 to $2.04. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GROY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.97, 0 of 10 active models suggest GROY may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $0.78, 73.6% below the current price of $2.97 — a consensus view that GROY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gold Royalty Corp.'s business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for GROY?

Gold Royalty Corp.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GROY?

CirclFi analyzes GROY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GROY?

Of the 10 models currently active on GROY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $2.04 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.19. CirclFi's published fair value for GROY is the median of that range, $0.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 235% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GROY a value trap in 2026?

Gold Royalty Corp.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY) has a median fair value of $0.78 — 73.6% below the current price of $2.97 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GROY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GROY valuation
  • Financial statements: Gold Royalty Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001834026) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GROY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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