CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Fair Value 2026

CF · Agricultural Inputs ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) trades at $125.71, versus a $184.33 median fair value across its 11 active models — 46.6% above the current price. QOC: 9.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $256.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
CF
Price
$125.71
Quality Score
9.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +104.4% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $184.33, 46.6% above the current price of $125.71. Estimates range from $83.55 to $343.94. CF scores 9.4/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CF’s +46.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CF?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($125.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $256.89 +104.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $184.33 +46.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $204.14 +62.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $250.90 +99.6%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is CF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $83.55 to $343.94

CirclFi's 11 active models place CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) between $83.55 and $343.94 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $184.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CF, against a current price of $125.71.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$83.55median $184.33$343.94
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$83.55
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$343.94
Model agreement9 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $125.71. Based on our 13-model framework, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $184.33 — representing +46.6% implied upside — with 9 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $343.94 (+173.6%), versus EROIC at $83.55 (-33.5%). This +207.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CF?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CF. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CF is $184.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $256.89 on its own, implying +104.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CF Rank in Agricultural Inputs?

Among 16 Agricultural Inputs stocks, CF ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places CF in the top tier.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CF a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for CF Industries Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.4/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +207.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CF's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Agricultural Inputs Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Agricultural Inputs stocks with 13-model coverage

ICLICL Group LtdQOC 2.6UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6NXTSNexentis Technologies Inc.QOC 3.6CTVACorteva, Inc.QOC 7.7GNVRGenvor IncorporatedQOC 3.8MOSThe Mosaic CompanyQOC 7.6IPIIntrepid Potash, Inc.QOC 7.4FMCFMC CorporationQOC 6.2VRDRVerde Resources, Inc.QOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: ICL · UAN · NXTS · CTVA · GNVR · MOS · IPI · FMC · VRDR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CF?

7 companies across all industries closest to CF’s Quality of Company score of 9.4/10.

ACFNAcorn Energy, Inc.QOC 9.4ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4NYTThe New York Times CompanyQOC 9.4AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4BLBDBlue Bird CorporationQOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACFN · ISRG · RMBS · NYT · AMPH · BLBD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)'s intrinsic value at $184.33 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $83.55 to $343.94. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $256.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $125.71, 10 of 11 active models suggest CF may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $184.33, 46.6% above the current price of $125.71 — a consensus view that CF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Agricultural Inputs.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.4 mean for CF?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CF?

CirclFi analyzes CF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CF?

Of the 11 models currently active on CF, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $343.94 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $83.55. CirclFi's published fair value for CF is the median of that range, $184.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CF a value trap in 2026?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has a median fair value of $184.33 — 46.6% above the current price of $125.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CF valuation
  • Financial statements: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001324404) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CF as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on CF.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

7 models hidden for CF Unlock All 11 — $39/mo