What Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $182.22, suggesting a +50.6% average upside from the current price of $120.97. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $418.23 (+245.7%), versus Dynamic NAV at $21.59 (-82.2%). This +327.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About CF?
12 of 13 models are currently active for CF. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CF's intrinsic value at $418.23, implying +245.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does CF Rank in Agricultural Chemicals?
Among 12 Agricultural Chemicals stocks, CF ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places CF in the top tier.
As a industrial enterprise, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where margin expansion trajectory is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating CF should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is CF a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CF a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for CF Industries Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 10.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +327.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every CF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across CF's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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