Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Fair Value 2026

CRCL · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) trades at $87.14, versus a $24.48 median fair value across its 3 active models — 71.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRCL
Price
$87.14
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $24.48, 71.9% below the current price of $87.14. Estimates range from $9.61 to $28.15. CRCL scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CRCL’s -71.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -32.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Circle Internet Group Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRCL?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($87.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.61 -89.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $28.15 -67.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $24.48 -71.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is CRCL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $9.61 to $28.15

CirclFi's 3 active models place Circle Internet Group (CRCL) between $9.61 and $28.15 per share, a spread of 76% of the median. The median of that range — $24.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRCL, against a current price of $87.14.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$9.61median $24.48$28.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$9.61
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$28.15
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRCL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Circle Internet Group's intrinsic value is estimated at $24.48. Trading at its current price of $87.14, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -71.9%.

What Do the Models Say About CRCL?

3 of 13 models are currently active for CRCL. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CRCL is $24.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRCL Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, CRCL ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Circle Internet Group's positioning within the Capital Markets segment means that loan loss provisions plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CRCL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRCL a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Circle Internet Group. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Circle Internet Group earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+21.3% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRCL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRCL's 3 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Circle Internet Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

CANGCango Inc.QOC 6.8RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.QOC 6.6MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9RHNORhino Bitcoin Inc.QOC 6.5JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0ABITAthena Bitcoin GlobalQOC 6.5DOMHDominari Holdings Inc.QOC 5.6CSHRCoinShares PLCQOC 3.8EVREvercore Inc.QOC 8.6FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CANG · RIOT · MIAX · RHNO · JEF · ABIT · DOMH · CSHR · EVR · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRCL?

7 companies across all industries closest to CRCL’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

RDNTRadNet, Inc.QOC 6.7INLXIntellinetics, Inc.QOC 6.7SILCSilicom Ltd.QOC 6.7PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.QOC 6.7MRKRMarker Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.7BZHBeazer Homes USA, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RDNT · INLX · SILC · PACK · MRKR · BZH · NVDA

Where Does CRCL Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

CRCL is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Circle Internet Group’s Valuation?

What is Circle Internet Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Circle Internet Group (CRCL)'s intrinsic value at $24.48 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.61 to $28.15. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRCL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $87.14, 0 of 3 active models suggest CRCL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $24.48, 71.9% below the current price of $87.14 — a consensus view that CRCL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Circle Internet Group's business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for CRCL?

Circle Internet Group's QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRCL?

CirclFi analyzes CRCL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRCL?

Of the 3 models currently active on CRCL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $28.15 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $9.61. CirclFi's published fair value for CRCL is the median of that range, $24.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 76% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRCL a value trap in 2026?

Circle Internet Group's Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) has a median fair value of $24.48 — 71.9% below the current price of $87.14 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRCL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRCL valuation
  • Financial statements: Circle Internet Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001876042) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRCL as of ; valuations recomputed .