Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Fair Value 2026

RCEL · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL) trades at $4.02, approximately 1007% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.36. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RCEL
Price
$4.02
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.36 -91.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $1.67 -58.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.21 -44.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $2.07 -48.5%

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What Is Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avita Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.04. Trading at its current price of $4.02, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -49.1%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $4.38 (+8.9%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.12 (-97.0%). This +106.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Avita Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RCEL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for RCEL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RCEL's intrinsic value at $0.36, implying -91.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RCEL Rank in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus?

Among 117 Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks, RCEL ranks #56 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks →

Avita Medical, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is RCEL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RCEL a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Avita Medical, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Avita Medical, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RCEL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RCEL's 10 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avita Medical, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 10.0IRMDiRadimed CorporationQOC 10.0PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 10.0RMDResMed Inc.QOC 10.0WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, IQOC 9.9HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 9.8LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.8GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: DXCM · IRMD · PODD · RMD · WST

See all Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Avita Medical, Inc.

What is Avita Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.36. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RCEL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.02, 1 of 10 active models suggest RCEL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avita Medical, Inc.'s business model in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for RCEL?

Avita Medical, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RCEL?

CirclFi analyzes RCEL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RCEL a value trap in 2026?

Avita Medical, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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