Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) Fair Value 2026

CCS · Real Estate - Development ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) trades at $69.16, versus a $37.47 median fair value across its 12 active models — 45.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CCS
Price
$69.16
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +23.6% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $37.47, 45.8% below the current price of $69.16. Estimates range from $1.98 to $109.30. CCS scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CCS’s -45.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Century Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CCS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($69.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.87 -16.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $41.32 -40.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $85.45 +23.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.16 -46.3%
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What Is CCS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $1.98 to $109.30

CirclFi's 12 active models place Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) between $1.98 and $109.30 per share, a spread of 286% of the median. The median of that range — $37.47 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CCS, against a current price of $69.16.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · PWERM
$1.98median $37.47$109.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.98
Most bullish modelPWERM$109.30
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CCS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CCS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Century Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $37.47, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $69.16. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-45.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +58.0% (fair value: $109.30), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -97.1% ($1.98). The spread between these extremes — +155.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CCS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CCS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CCS is $37.47 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CCS Rank in Real Estate - Development?

Among 19 Real Estate - Development stocks, CCS ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Real Estate - Development space, Century Communities, Inc. competes in an environment where occupancy rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CCS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CCS a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Century Communities, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Century Communities, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +155.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CCS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CCS's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Century Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate - Development Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Real Estate - Development stocks with 13-model coverage

SDHCSmith Douglas Homes Corp.QOC 7.1SRRESunrise Real Estate Group, Inc.QOC 6.3HHHHoward Hughes Holdings Inc.QOC 7.3JFBJFB Construction HoldingsQOC 6.1LRELead Real Estate Co., LtdQOC 7.6KANPKaanapali Land, LLCQOC 6.0SKYHSky Harbour Group CorporationQOC 5.9GEDCTerraVolt Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.5FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCQOC 7.7AXRAMREP CorporationQOC 8.0

Read investment analysis: SDHC · SRRE · HHH · JFB · LRE · KANP · SKYH · GEDC · FPH · AXR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CCS?

7 companies across all industries closest to CCS’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

NEOGNeogen CorporationQOC 6.9KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.9MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NEOG · KMX · DRVN · SOFI · MIAX · OBDC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Century Communities, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Century Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)'s intrinsic value at $37.47 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.98 to $109.30. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CCS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $69.16, 2 of 12 active models suggest CCS may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $37.47, 45.8% below the current price of $69.16 — a consensus view that CCS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Century Communities, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate - Development.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for CCS?

Century Communities, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CCS?

CirclFi analyzes CCS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CCS?

Of the 12 models currently active on CCS, PWERM is the most bullish at $109.30 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.98. CirclFi's published fair value for CCS is the median of that range, $37.47, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 286% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CCS a value trap in 2026?

Century Communities, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Century Communities, Inc. (CCS) has a median fair value of $37.47 — 45.8% below the current price of $69.16 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CCS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CCS valuation
  • Financial statements: Century Communities, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001576940) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CCS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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