Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Fair Value 2026

XZO · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) trades at $16.55, versus a $13.46 median fair value across its 9 active models — 18.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $20.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
XZO
Price
$16.55
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +23.1% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $13.46, 18.7% below the current price of $16.55. Estimates range from $6.81 to $20.37. XZO scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. XZO’s -18.7% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Exzeo Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XZO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.37 +23.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $13.46 -18.7%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $15.54 -6.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.54 -6.1%
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What Is XZO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.81 to $20.37

CirclFi's 9 active models place Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) between $6.81 and $20.37 per share, a spread of 101% of the median. The median of that range — $13.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XZO, against a current price of $16.55.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$6.81median $13.46$20.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$6.81
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$20.37
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XZO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XZO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Exzeo Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.46, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $16.55. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-18.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $20.37 (+23.1%), versus EROIC at $6.81 (-58.9%). This +81.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About XZO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for XZO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XZO is $13.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $20.37 on its own, implying +23.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XZO Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 10 Insurance - Diversified stocks, XZO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places XZO in the top tier.

As a risk-bearing enterprise, Exzeo Group, Inc. operates in a sector where reserve adequacy is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating XZO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is XZO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XZO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Exzeo Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Exzeo Group, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +81.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XZO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XZO's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Exzeo Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.QOC 9.2HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7IGICInternational General Insurance Holdings Ltd.QOC 8.7AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.QOC 7.7WDHWaterdrop Inc.QOC 7.6SLFSun Life Financial Inc.QOC 7.1AEGAegon Ltd.QOC 6.7SUNDSundance Strategies, Inc.QOC 3.5

Read investment analysis: ACGL · HIG · IGIC · AIG · BNT · WDH · SLF · AEG · SUND

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XZO?

7 companies across all industries closest to XZO’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQOC 8.9UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9ACLSAxcelis Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ARHS · AME · KO · UNTY · ACLS · PEN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Exzeo Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Exzeo Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)'s intrinsic value at $13.46 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.81 to $20.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $20.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XZO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.55, 1 of 9 active models suggest XZO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $13.46, 18.7% below the current price of $16.55 — a consensus view that XZO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Exzeo Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for XZO?

Exzeo Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XZO?

CirclFi analyzes XZO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XZO?

Of the 9 models currently active on XZO, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $20.37 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $6.81. CirclFi's published fair value for XZO is the median of that range, $13.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 101% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XZO a value trap in 2026?

Exzeo Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) has a median fair value of $13.46 — 18.7% below the current price of $16.55 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XZO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XZO valuation
  • Financial statements: Exzeo Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001873951) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XZO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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