The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) Fair Value 2026

HIG · Insurance - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) trades at $138.55, versus a $209.79 median fair value across its 6 active models — 51.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HIG
Price
$138.55
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +121.2% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $209.79, 51.4% above the current price of $138.55. Estimates range from $130.45 to $306.45. HIG scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HIG’s +51.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HIG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($138.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $131.82 -4.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $213.57 +54.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $306.45 +121.2%
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What Is HIG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $130.45 to $306.45

CirclFi's 6 active models place The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) between $130.45 and $306.45 per share, a spread of 84% of the median. The median of that range — $209.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HIG, against a current price of $138.55.

Low · FTNNHigh · ML-RIV
$130.45median $209.79$306.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$130.45
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$306.45
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HIG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. at $138.55. With an estimated intrinsic value of $209.79 and 4 of 6 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +51.4%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $306.45 (+121.2%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $130.45 (-5.8%). This +127.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HIG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HIG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HIG is $209.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HIG Rank in Insurance - Diversified?

Among 10 Insurance - Diversified stocks, HIG ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places HIG in the top tier.

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Diversified segment means that reserve adequacy plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including market share gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HIG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HIG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HIG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HIG's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.QOC 9.2XZOExzeo Group, Inc.QOC 8.9IGICInternational General Insurance Holdings Ltd.QOC 8.7AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.QOC 7.7WDHWaterdrop Inc.QOC 7.6SLFSun Life Financial Inc.QOC 7.1AEGAegon Ltd.QOC 6.7SUNDSundance Strategies, Inc.QOC 3.5

Read investment analysis: ACGL · XZO · IGIC · AIG · BNT · WDH · SLF · AEG · SUND

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HIG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HIG’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.QOC 8.7ONBOld National BancorpQOC 8.7ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7EROEro Copper Corp.QOC 8.7AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.QOC 8.7CECOCECO Environmental Corp.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ROK · ONB · ULTA · ERO · AMZN · CECO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG)'s intrinsic value at $209.79 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $130.45 to $306.45. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HIG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $138.55, 4 of 6 active models suggest HIG may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $209.79, 51.4% above the current price of $138.55 — a consensus view that HIG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for HIG?

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HIG?

CirclFi analyzes HIG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HIG?

Of the 6 models currently active on HIG, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $306.45 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $130.45. CirclFi's published fair value for HIG is the median of that range, $209.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 84% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HIG a value trap in 2026?

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG) has a median fair value of $209.79 — 51.4% above the current price of $138.55 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HIG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HIG valuation
  • Financial statements: The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000874766) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HIG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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