VNOV (VNOV) Fair Value 2026

VNOV · Medical Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, VNOV (VNOV) trades at $1.38, versus a $0.54 median fair value across its 8 active models — 61.1% below the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.77.

Key Facts

Ticker
VNOV
Price
$1.38
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is VNOV (VNOV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VNOV (VNOV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $0.54, 61.1% below the current price of $1.38. Estimates range from $0.20 to $1.13. VNOV scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. VNOV’s -61.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy VNOV Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VNOV?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.77 -44.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.58 -57.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $0.49 -64.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.98 -28.7%
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What Is VNOV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.20 to $1.13

CirclFi's 8 active models place VNOV (VNOV) between $0.20 and $1.13 per share, a spread of 173% of the median. The median of that range — $0.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VNOV, against a current price of $1.38.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · FTNN
$0.20median $0.54$1.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.20
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$1.13
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VNOV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VNOV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is VNOV (VNOV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, VNOV's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $1.38. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-61.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $1.13 (-18.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.20 (-85.7%). This +67.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About VNOV?

8 of 13 models are currently active for VNOV. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for VNOV is $0.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.77 on its own, implying -44.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VNOV Rank in Medical Distribution?

Among 12 Medical Distribution stocks, VNOV ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

VNOV operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is VNOV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VNOV a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for VNOV. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, VNOV's fundamental quality profile registers 5.6/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +67.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VNOV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VNOV's 8 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy VNOV Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

MCKMcKesson CorporationQOC 8.7CORCencora, Inc.QOC 8.3CAHCardinal Health, Inc.QOC 7.9HSICHenry Schein, Inc.QOC 7.3YI111, Inc.QOC 6.8FOCLEDAP TMS S.A.QOC 5.8ACHAccendra Health, Inc.QOC 5.7COSMCosmos Health Inc.QOC 4.6MEDSDataMEDS AI, Inc.QOC 4.2HKPDCellyan Biotechnology Co., LtdQOC 2.5AHGAkso Health GroupQOC 2.2

Read investment analysis: MCK · COR · CAH · HSIC · YI · FOCL · ACH · COSM · MEDS · HKPD · AHG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VNOV?

7 companies across all industries closest to VNOV’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

WKHSWorkhorse Group, Inc.QOC 5.6DNTHDianthus Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.6DDCDDC Enterprise LimitedQOC 5.6WTERThe Alkaline Water Company Inc.QOC 5.6SHIMShimmick CorporationQOC 5.6VSTSVestis CorporationQOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WKHS · DNTH · DDC · WTER · SHIM · VSTS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About VNOV’s Valuation?

What is VNOV's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts VNOV (VNOV)'s intrinsic value at $0.54 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.20 to $1.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.77 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VNOV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.38, 0 of 8 active models suggest VNOV may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $0.54, 61.1% below the current price of $1.38 — a consensus view that VNOV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits VNOV's business model in Medical Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for VNOV?

VNOV's QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VNOV?

CirclFi analyzes VNOV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VNOV?

Of the 8 models currently active on VNOV, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $1.13 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.20. CirclFi's published fair value for VNOV is the median of that range, $0.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 173% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VNOV a value trap in 2026?

VNOV's Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, VNOV (VNOV) has a median fair value of $0.54 — 61.1% below the current price of $1.38 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VNOV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VNOV valuation
  • Financial statements: VNOV 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001699709) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VNOV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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