BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Fair Value 2026

TCPC · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) trades at $3.31. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TCPC
Price
$3.31
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +301.0% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $9.59, 189.8% above the current price of $3.31. Estimates range from $3.63 to $13.27. TCPC scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $6.29 +89.9%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $13.27 +301.0%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
 $3.63 +9.7%

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What Is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $9.05. At a current market price of $3.31, 6 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +173.5%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +301.0% (fair value: $13.27), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at +9.7% ($3.63). The spread between these extremes — +291.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TCPC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TCPC. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TCPC Rank in —?

TCPC operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TCPC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TCPC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. scores 5.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +291.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TCPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TCPC's 6 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.

What is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TCPC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.31, 6 of 6 active models suggest TCPC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $9.59, 189.8% above the current price of $3.31 — a consensus view that TCPC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for TCPC?

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TCPC?

CirclFi analyzes TCPC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TCPC a value trap in 2026?

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) has a median fair value of $9.59 — 189.8% above the current price of $3.31 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TCPC/ · Methodology

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