BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Fair Value 2026

TCPC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) trades at $4.12, versus a $7.62 median fair value across its 4 active models — 85.0% above the current price. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TCPC
Price
$4.12
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +215.7% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $7.62, 85.0% above the current price of $4.12. Estimates range from $3.28 to $13.01. TCPC scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TCPC’s +85.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TCPC?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.01 +215.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $3.28 -20.4%
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What Is TCPC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $3.28 to $13.01

CirclFi's 4 active models place BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) between $3.28 and $13.01 per share, a spread of 128% of the median. The median of that range — $7.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TCPC, against a current price of $4.12.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · CUCE
$3.28median $7.62$13.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$3.28
Most bullish modelCUCE$13.01
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TCPC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TCPC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $7.62. At a current market price of $4.12, 3 of 4 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +85.0%. Notably, CUCE sees the most upside at +215.7% (fair value: $13.01), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -20.4% ($3.28). The spread between these extremes — +236.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TCPC?

4 of 13 models are currently active for TCPC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TCPC is $7.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TCPC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, TCPC ranks #111 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TCPC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TCPC a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. scores 5.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +236.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TCPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TCPC's 4 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

BTXBlackRock Innovation and Growth Term TrustQOC 5.0BANXArrowMark Financial Corp.QOC 5.0GAMGGlobal Asset Management Group IQOC 5.0BGYBlackRock Enhanced International Dividend TrustQOC 5.0SORSource CapitalQOC 5.0JHSJohn Hancock Income Securities TrustQOC 5.0OCCIOFS Credit Company, Inc.QOC 3.8ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.1PNNTPennantPark Investment CorporationQOC 6.4HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BTX · BANX · GAMG · BGY · SOR · JHS · OCCI · ARES · PNNT · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TCPC?

7 companies across all industries closest to TCPC’s Quality of Company score of 5.0/10.

MAIAMAIA Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 5.0SVRASavara Inc.QOC 5.0ZURAZura Bio LimitedQOC 5.0IWSHWright Investors' Service Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.0CABACabaletta Bio, Inc.QOC 5.0OMQSOMNIQ Corp.QOC 5.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MAIA · SVRA · ZURA · IWSH · CABA · OMQS · NVDA

Where Does TCPC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

TCPC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.’s Valuation?

What is BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC)'s intrinsic value at $7.62 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.28 to $13.01. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TCPC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.12, 3 of 4 active models suggest TCPC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $7.62, 85.0% above the current price of $4.12 — a consensus view that TCPC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for TCPC?

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TCPC?

CirclFi analyzes TCPC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TCPC?

Of the 4 models currently active on TCPC, CUCE is the most bullish at $13.01 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $3.28. CirclFi's published fair value for TCPC is the median of that range, $7.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 128% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TCPC a value trap in 2026?

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) has a median fair value of $7.62 — 85.0% above the current price of $4.12 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TCPC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TCPC valuation
  • Financial statements: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001370755) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TCPC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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