The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) Fair Value 2026

NCTY · Finance Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) trades at $3.83, approximately 514% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.62. QOC: 5.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NCTY
Price
$3.83
Quality Score
5.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $0.62, 83.8% below the current price of $3.83. Estimates range from $0.09 to $4.18. NCTY scores 5.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The9 Limited - American Deposit Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($3.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$0.62 -83.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.15 -70.0%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$0.09 -97.6%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$0.62 -83.9%

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What Is The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The9 Limited - American Deposit's intrinsic value is estimated at $1.15. Trading at its current price of $3.84, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -70.0%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $4.18 (+9.0%), while First Chicago — the most conservative — estimates $0.09 (-97.6%). This +106.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The9 Limited - American Deposit's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NCTY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NCTY. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NCTY's intrinsic value at $0.62, implying -83.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NCTY Rank in Finance Services?

Among 114 Finance Services stocks, NCTY ranks #68 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.3 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Finance Services Stocks →

The9 Limited - American Deposit operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NCTY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NCTY a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The9 Limited - American Deposit. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The9 Limited - American Deposit scores 5.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +106.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NCTY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NCTY's 10 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The9 Limited - American Deposit Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Finance Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Finance Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: QFIN · XYF · COIN · SII · JFIN

See all Finance Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About The9 Limited - American Deposit

What is The9 Limited - American Deposit's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.62. The Quality of Company score is 5.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NCTY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $3.83, 1 of 10 active models suggest NCTY may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $0.62, 83.8% below the current price of $3.83 — a consensus view that NCTY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The9 Limited - American Deposit's business model in Finance Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.3 mean for NCTY?

The9 Limited - American Deposit's QOC of 5.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NCTY?

CirclFi analyzes NCTY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NCTY a value trap in 2026?

The9 Limited - American Deposit's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The9 Limited - American Deposit (NCTY) has a median fair value of $0.62 — 83.8% below the current price of $3.83 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NCTY/ · Methodology

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