Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) Fair Value 2026

NGVT · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) trades at $69.43, versus a $106.76 median fair value across its 9 active models — 53.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.73.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGVT
Price
$69.43
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +53.8% upside with 75% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $106.76, 53.8% above the current price of $69.43. Estimates range from $40.73 to $204.30. NGVT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NGVT’s +53.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -36.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ingevity Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NGVT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($69.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.73 -41.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $106.76 +53.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $100.07 +44.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $95.18 +37.1%
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What Is NGVT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $40.73 to $204.30

CirclFi's 9 active models place Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) between $40.73 and $204.30 per share, a spread of 153% of the median. The median of that range — $106.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NGVT, against a current price of $69.43.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$40.73median $106.76$204.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$40.73
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$204.30
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NGVT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NGVT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ingevity Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $106.76. At a current market price of $69.43, 7 of 9 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +53.8%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +194.2% (fair value: $204.30), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -41.3% ($40.73). The spread between these extremes — +235.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NGVT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NGVT. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NGVT is $106.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.73 on its own, implying -41.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGVT Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 70 Specialty Chemicals stocks, NGVT ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places NGVT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a manufacturing company, Ingevity Corporation operates in a sector where working capital efficiency is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NGVT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NGVT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGVT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Ingevity Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ingevity Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +235.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGVT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGVT's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ingevity Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationQOC 8.2SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyQOC 8.1ESIElement Solutions IncQOC 8.6SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 8.1CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6AVNTAvient CorporationQOC 8.1OECOrion S.A.QOC 7.0PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0SQMSociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.QOC 2.7ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: NTIC · SHW · ESI · SOLS · CBT · AVNT · OEC · PRM · SQM · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NGVT?

7 companies across all industries closest to NGVT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

BCALCalifornia BanCorpQOC 8.2GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2PANLPangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd.QOC 8.2NOBHNobility Homes, Inc.QOC 8.2ITGRInteger Holdings CorporationQOC 8.2RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BCAL · GBCI · PANL · NOBH · ITGR · RAIL · NVDA

Where Does NGVT Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

NGVT is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ingevity Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Ingevity Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ingevity Corporation (NGVT)'s intrinsic value at $106.76 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $40.73 to $204.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.73 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGVT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $69.43, 7 of 9 active models suggest NGVT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $106.76, 53.8% above the current price of $69.43 — a consensus view that NGVT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ingevity Corporation's business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for NGVT?

Ingevity Corporation's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGVT?

CirclFi analyzes NGVT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NGVT?

Of the 9 models currently active on NGVT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $204.30 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $40.73. CirclFi's published fair value for NGVT is the median of that range, $106.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 153% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NGVT a value trap in 2026?

Ingevity Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ingevity Corporation (NGVT) has a median fair value of $106.76 — 53.8% above the current price of $69.43 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGVT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NGVT valuation
  • Financial statements: Ingevity Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001653477) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NGVT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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