What Is NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NBT Bancorp Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $58.69, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $50.64. While the average implied return is +15.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +247.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $141.33 (+179.1%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $15.90 (-68.6%). This +247.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NBT Bancorp Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About NBTB?
12 of 13 models are currently active for NBTB. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NBTB's intrinsic value at $82.82, implying +63.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does NBTB Rank in National Commercial Banks?
Among 92 National Commercial Banks stocks, NBTB ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places NBTB in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →
The National Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For NBT Bancorp Inc., metrics like deposit growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is NBTB a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBTB a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for NBT Bancorp Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NBT Bancorp Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +247.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every NBTB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across NBTB's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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