NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Fair Value 2026

NBTB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) trades at $51.55, versus a $36.98 median fair value across its 6 active models — 28.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBTB
Price
$51.55
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $36.98, 28.3% below the current price of $51.55. Estimates range from $30.75 to $69.82. NBTB scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NBTB’s -28.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NBT Bancorp Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NBTB?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($51.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.61 -36.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $37.19 -27.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.75 -40.4%
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What Is NBTB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $30.75 to $69.82

CirclFi's 6 active models place NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) between $30.75 and $69.82 per share, a spread of 106% of the median. The median of that range — $36.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NBTB, against a current price of $51.55.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$30.75median $36.98$69.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$30.75
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$69.82
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NBTB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NBTB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NBT Bancorp Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $36.98. Trading at its current price of $51.55, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -28.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $69.82 (+35.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $30.75 (-40.4%). This +75.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NBT Bancorp Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NBTB?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NBTB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NBTB is $36.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBTB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, NBTB ranks #48 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places NBTB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For NBT Bancorp Inc., metrics like deposit growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NBTB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBTB a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for NBT Bancorp Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NBT Bancorp Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +75.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBTB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBTB's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NBT Bancorp Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

FBIZFirst Business Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.6CIVBCivista Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5WBSWebster Financial CorpQOC 8.6FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.QOC 8.5TCBSTexas Community Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial CorporationQOC 8.5BPOPPopular, Inc.QOC 8.2ISTRInvestar Holding CorporationQOC 7.8CIZNCitizens Holding CompanyQOC 6.8STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FBIZ · CIVB · WBS · FIBK · TCBS · FCF · BPOP · ISTR · CIZN · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NBTB?

6 companies across all industries closest to NBTB’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

EVEREverQuote, Inc.QOC 8.5LAMRLamar Advertising CompanyQOC 8.5PWRQuanta Services, Inc.QOC 8.5PCARPACCAR IncQOC 8.5VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EVER · LAMR · PWR · PCAR · VRSK · NVDA

Where Does NBTB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

NBTB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NBT Bancorp Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NBT Bancorp Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB)'s intrinsic value at $36.98 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $30.75 to $69.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBTB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $51.55, 1 of 6 active models suggest NBTB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $36.98, 28.3% below the current price of $51.55 — a consensus view that NBTB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NBT Bancorp Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for NBTB?

NBT Bancorp Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBTB?

CirclFi analyzes NBTB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NBTB?

Of the 6 models currently active on NBTB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $69.82 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $30.75. CirclFi's published fair value for NBTB is the median of that range, $36.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 106% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NBTB a value trap in 2026?

NBT Bancorp Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) has a median fair value of $36.98 — 28.3% below the current price of $51.55 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NBTB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NBTB valuation
  • Financial statements: NBT Bancorp Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000790359) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NBTB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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