Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) Fair Value 2026

METC · Coking Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) trades at $8.22, versus a $2.88 median fair value across its 3 active models — 65.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.88.

Key Facts

Ticker
METC
Price
$8.22
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +45.2% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $2.88, 65.0% below the current price of $8.22. Estimates range from $0.69 to $11.94. METC scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. METC’s -65.0% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ramaco Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give METC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.88 -65.0%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.69 -91.6%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $11.94 +45.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is METC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.69 to $11.94

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) between $0.69 and $11.94 per share, a spread of 391% of the median. The median of that range — $2.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for METC, against a current price of $8.22.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$0.69median $2.88$11.94
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.69
Most bullish modelPWERM$11.94
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for METC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on METC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ramaco Resources, Inc. at its current price of $8.22. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.88 (-65.0% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $11.94 (+45.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.69 (-91.6%). This +136.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About METC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for METC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for METC is $2.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.88 on its own, implying -65.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does METC Rank in Coking Coal?

Among 4 Coking Coal stocks, METC ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

As a energy sector, Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates in a sector where reserve replacement ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating METC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is METC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns METC a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ramaco Resources, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +136.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every METC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across METC's 3 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ramaco Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Coking Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Coking Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.QOC 7.3AMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: HCC · AMR · SXC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to METC?

7 companies across all industries closest to METC’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

EXFYExpensify, Inc.QOC 6.9EMLThe Eastern CompanyQOC 6.9MSBIMidland States Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9SMWBSimilarweb Ltd.QOC 6.9MATVMativ Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MGTXMeiraGTx Holdings plcQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXFY · EML · MSBI · SMWB · MATV · MGTX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ramaco Resources, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC)'s intrinsic value at $2.88 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.69 to $11.94. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.88 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is METC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.22, 1 of 3 active models suggest METC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $2.88, 65.0% below the current price of $8.22 — a consensus view that METC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s business model in Coking Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for METC?

Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on METC?

CirclFi analyzes METC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on METC?

Of the 3 models currently active on METC, PWERM is the most bullish at $11.94 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.69. CirclFi's published fair value for METC is the median of that range, $2.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 391% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is METC a value trap in 2026?

Ramaco Resources, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) has a median fair value of $2.88 — 65.0% below the current price of $8.22 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/METC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this METC valuation
  • Financial statements: Ramaco Resources, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001687187) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for METC as of ; valuations recomputed .