Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Fair Value 2026

AMR · Coking Coal ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) trades at $226.23, versus a $153.65 median fair value across its 7 active models — 32.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $153.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMR
Price
$226.23
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $153.65, 32.1% below the current price of $226.23. Estimates range from $16.61 to $267.08. AMR scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AMR’s -32.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AMR?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($226.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $153.65 -32.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $159.68 -29.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $149.74 -33.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including First Chicago, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is AMR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $16.61 to $267.08

CirclFi's 7 active models place Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) between $16.61 and $267.08 per share, a spread of 163% of the median. The median of that range — $153.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AMR, against a current price of $226.23.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$16.61median $153.65$267.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$16.61
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$267.08
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AMR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AMR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $153.65. Trading at $226.23, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -32.1%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $267.08 (+18.1%), versus ML-RIV at $16.61 (-92.7%). This +110.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AMR?

7 of 13 models are currently active for AMR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AMR is $153.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $153.65 on its own, implying -32.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMR Rank in Coking Coal?

Among 4 Coking Coal stocks, AMR ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s positioning within the Coking Coal segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including production growth trajectory — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AMR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMR a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMR's 7 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Coking Coal Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Coking Coal stocks with 13-model coverage

HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.QOC 7.3METCRamaco Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4

Read investment analysis: HCC · METC · SXC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AMR?

7 companies across all industries closest to AMR’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

NTGRNETGEAR, Inc.QOC 6.9AWREAware, Inc.QOC 6.9SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyQOC 6.9HEHawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.QOC 6.9XELXcel Energy Inc.QOC 6.9GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NTGR · AWRE · SMG · HE · XEL · GRFS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)'s intrinsic value at $153.65 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.61 to $267.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $153.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $226.23, 1 of 7 active models suggest AMR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $153.65, 32.1% below the current price of $226.23 — a consensus view that AMR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s business model in Coking Coal.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for AMR?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMR?

CirclFi analyzes AMR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AMR?

Of the 7 models currently active on AMR, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $267.08 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $16.61. CirclFi's published fair value for AMR is the median of that range, $153.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 163% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AMR a value trap in 2026?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) has a median fair value of $153.65 — 32.1% below the current price of $226.23 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AMR valuation

Market data for AMR as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AMR.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for AMR Unlock All 7 — $39/mo