First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) Fair Value 2026

FOTB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) trades at $227.99, versus a $191.13 median fair value across its 2 active models — 16.2% below the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FOTB
Price
$227.99
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +30.3% upside with 11% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $191.13, 16.2% below the current price of $227.99. Estimates range from $85.18 to $297.09. FOTB scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FOTB’s -16.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FOTB?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($227.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $85.18 -62.6%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $297.09 +30.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $227.99. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $191.13 (-16.2% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 1 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $297.09 (+30.3%), versus Markov DDM at $85.18 (-62.6%). This +92.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FOTB?

2 of 13 models are currently active for FOTB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FOTB is $191.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FOTB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, FOTB ranks #342 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a lending environment, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. operates in a sector where cost-to-income ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FOTB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FOTB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FOTB a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.8/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FOTB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FOTB's 2 active models, average confidence is 12%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

URSBURSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.0EWSBEWSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 4.8FBSIFirst Bancshares, Inc.QOC 5.1CCNBCoastal Carolina Bancshares, Inc.QOC 4.7BMBNBenchmark Bankshares, Inc.QOC 5.1CPKFChesapeake Financial Shares, Inc.QOC 4.7EQBKEquity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.4FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationQOC 8.0FKYSFirst Keystone CorporationQOC 7.5ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: URSB · EWSB · FBSI · CCNB · BMBN · CPKF · EQBK · FRME · FKYS · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FOTB?

7 companies across all industries closest to FOTB’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

BCRDBlueOne Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.8FMHSFarmhouse, Inc.QOC 4.8MLCIMount Logan Capital Inc.QOC 4.8BEEPMobile Infrastructure CorporationQOC 4.8TRVITrevi Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8TGLTreasure Global Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BCRD · FMHS · MLCI · BEEP · TRVI · TGL · NVDA

Where Does FOTB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

FOTB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB)'s intrinsic value at $191.13 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $85.18 to $297.09. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FOTB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $227.99, 1 of 2 active models suggest FOTB may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $191.13, 16.2% below the current price of $227.99 — a consensus view that FOTB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for FOTB?

First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FOTB?

CirclFi analyzes FOTB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FOTB a value trap in 2026?

First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. (FOTB) has a median fair value of $191.13 — 16.2% below the current price of $227.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FOTB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FOTB valuation
  • Financial statements: First Ottawa Bancshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001099668) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FOTB as of ; valuations recomputed .