Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Fair Value 2026

BSRR · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) trades at $39.84, versus a $35.94 median fair value across its 6 active models — 9.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BSRR
Price
$39.84
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +14.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $35.94, within 9.8% of the current price of $39.84. Estimates range from $27.37 to $58.16. BSRR scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BSRR’s -9.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sierra Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BSRR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.37 -31.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $37.67 -5.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.63 +14.5%
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What Is BSRR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $27.37 to $58.16

CirclFi's 6 active models place Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) between $27.37 and $58.16 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $35.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BSRR, against a current price of $39.84.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$27.37median $35.94$58.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$27.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$58.16
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BSRR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Sierra Bancorp at its current price of $39.84. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $35.94 (-9.8% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +46.0% (fair value: $58.16), while EPV is the most conservative at -31.3% ($27.37). The spread between these extremes — +77.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BSRR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BSRR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BSRR is $35.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BSRR Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, BSRR ranks #267 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Sierra Bancorp competes in an environment where deposit growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BSRR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BSRR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Sierra Bancorp. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Sierra Bancorp is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +77.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BSRR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BSRR's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sierra Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

RBBRBB BancorpQOC 7.5CMTVCommunity BancorpQOC 7.4TFINTriumph Financial, Inc.QOC 7.5HOPEHope Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.4GOVBGouverneur Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1CCBGCapital City Bank Group, Inc.QOC 8.4HWCHancock Whitney CorporationQOC 8.0STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: RBB · CMTV · TFIN · HOPE · GOVB · OCFC · PEBO · CCBG · HWC · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BSRR?

7 companies across all industries closest to BSRR’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

HUIZHuize Holding LimitedQOC 7.4DARDarling Ingredients Inc.QOC 7.4PUBMPubMatic, Inc.QOC 7.4INGING Groep N.V.QOC 7.4CDNLCardinal Infrastructure Group Inc.QOC 7.4SLPSimulations Plus, Inc.QOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HUIZ · DAR · PUBM · ING · CDNL · SLP · NVDA

Where Does BSRR Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BSRR is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sierra Bancorp’s Valuation?

What is Sierra Bancorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)'s intrinsic value at $35.94 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $27.37 to $58.16. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BSRR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.84, 2 of 6 active models suggest BSRR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $35.94, within 9.8% of the current price of $39.84 — a consensus view that BSRR is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sierra Bancorp's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for BSRR?

Sierra Bancorp's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BSRR?

CirclFi analyzes BSRR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BSRR?

Of the 6 models currently active on BSRR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $58.16 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $27.37. CirclFi's published fair value for BSRR is the median of that range, $35.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BSRR a value trap in 2026?

Sierra Bancorp's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) has a median fair value of $35.94 — within 9.8% of the current price of $39.84 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BSRR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BSRR valuation
  • Financial statements: Sierra Bancorp 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001130144) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BSRR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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