Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. (FMX) Fair Value 2026

FMX · Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. (FMX) trades at $128.98, approximately 33% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $193.14. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FMX
Price
$128.98
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +49.7% upside with 36% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($128.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$193.14 +49.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$145.79 +13.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$185.41 +43.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$63.99 -50.4%

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What Is Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. (FMX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $180.16. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $128.98 (implied upside of +39.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 13 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +280.0% (fair value: $490.17), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -84.6% ($19.83). The spread between these extremes — +364.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FMX?

13 of 13 models are currently active for FMX. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FMX's intrinsic value at $193.14, implying +49.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FMX Rank in Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters?

Among 9 Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters stocks, FMX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places FMX in the top tier.

As a regulated utility, Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. operates in a sector where earned vs. allowed ROE is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FMX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FMX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FMX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +364.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FMX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FMX's 13 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: COKE · MNST · FIZZ · CELH · CCEP

Frequently Asked Questions About Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.

What is Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A. (FMX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $193.14. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FMX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $128.98, 8 of 13 active models suggest FMX may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.'s business model in Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for FMX?

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FMX?

CirclFi analyzes FMX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FMX a value trap in 2026?

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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