Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Fair Value 2026

ABEV · Beverages - Brewers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Ambev S.A. (ABEV) trades at $2.86, versus a $3.92 median fair value across its 12 active models — 37.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.83.

Key Facts

Ticker
ABEV
Price
$2.86
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +138.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ambev S.A. (ABEV) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $3.92, 37.1% above the current price of $2.86. Estimates range from $0.19 to $6.83. ABEV scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ABEV’s +37.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ambev S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ABEV?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.83 +138.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.65 +62.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.22 +47.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.44 +90.1%
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What Is ABEV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $0.19 to $6.83

CirclFi's 12 active models place Ambev S.A. (ABEV) between $0.19 and $6.83 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $3.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ABEV, against a current price of $2.86.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$0.19median $3.92$6.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.19
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$6.83
Model agreement9 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ABEV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ABEV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ambev S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3.92. At a current market price of $2.86, 9 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +37.1%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +138.6% (fair value: $6.83), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -93.4% ($0.19). The spread between these extremes — +232.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ABEV?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ABEV. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ABEV is $3.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.83 on its own, implying +138.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ABEV Rank in Beverages - Brewers?

Among 7 Beverages - Brewers stocks, ABEV ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ABEV in the top tier.

The Beverages - Brewers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Ambev S.A., metrics like inventory turnover provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ABEV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ABEV a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Ambev S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ambev S.A. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +232.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ABEV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ABEV's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ambev S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Brewers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Beverages - Brewers stocks with 13-model coverage

FMXFomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.6STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2CCUCompañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.QOC 8.2SAMThe Boston Beer Company, Inc.QOC 7.8TAPMolson Coors Beverage CompanyQOC 6.5BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: FMX · STZ · CCU · SAM · TAP · BUD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ABEV?

7 companies across all industries closest to ABEV’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationQOC 8.2LEUCentrus Energy Corp.QOC 8.2YUMYum! Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.QOC 8.2NBBKNB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHE · VRRM · LEU · YUM · GRNT · NBBK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ambev S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Ambev S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ambev S.A. (ABEV)'s intrinsic value at $3.92 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.19 to $6.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.83 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ABEV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.86, 9 of 12 active models suggest ABEV may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $3.92, 37.1% above the current price of $2.86 — a consensus view that ABEV is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ambev S.A.'s business model in Beverages - Brewers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ABEV?

Ambev S.A.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ABEV?

CirclFi analyzes ABEV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ABEV?

Of the 12 models currently active on ABEV, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $6.83 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.19. CirclFi's published fair value for ABEV is the median of that range, $3.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ABEV a value trap in 2026?

Ambev S.A.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Ambev S.A. (ABEV) has a median fair value of $3.92 — 37.1% above the current price of $2.86 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ABEV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ABEV valuation
  • Financial statements: Ambev S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001565025) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ABEV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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