Coty Inc. (COTY) Fair Value 2026

COTY · Household & Personal Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (47/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Coty Inc. (COTY) trades at $2.85, versus a $4.60 median fair value across its 7 active models — 61.3% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 47/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.97.

Key Facts

Ticker
COTY
Price
$2.85
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
47/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +99.8% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 47 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Coty Inc. (COTY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Coty Inc. (COTY) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $4.60, 61.3% above the current price of $2.85. Estimates range from $1.90 to $8.23. COTY scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 47/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. COTY’s +61.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Household & Personal Products sector median is -7.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Coty Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give COTY?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.97 -31.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.94 +73.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.70 +99.8%
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What Is COTY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.90 to $8.23

CirclFi's 7 active models place Coty Inc. (COTY) between $1.90 and $8.23 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $4.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for COTY, against a current price of $2.85.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · PWERM
$1.90median $4.60$8.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$1.90
Most bullish modelPWERM$8.23
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for COTY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on COTY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Coty Inc. (COTY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Coty Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.60. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $2.85 (implied upside of +61.3%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +188.7% (fair value: $8.23), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -33.5% ($1.90). The spread between these extremes — +222.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About COTY?

7 of 13 models are currently active for COTY. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for COTY is $4.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.97 on its own, implying -31.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does COTY Rank in Household & Personal Products?

Among 35 Household & Personal Products stocks, COTY ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Household & Personal Products space, Coty Inc. competes in an environment where customer lifetime value (CLV) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is COTY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns COTY a score of 47/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Coty Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Coty Inc. is rated at 6.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every COTY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across COTY's 7 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Coty Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Household & Personal Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Household & Personal Products stocks with 13-model coverage

HNSTThe Honest Company, Inc.QOC 6.1SKINSkinHealth Systems Inc.QOC 6.0NWLNewell Brands Inc.QOC 6.2WALDWaldencast plcQOC 5.7DQWSDSwiss, Inc.QOC 6.2PUREPURE Bioscience, Inc.QOC 5.4BYAHPark Ha Biological Technology Co., Ltd.QOC 2.7UGUnited-Guardian, Inc.QOC 8.1SLSNSolesence, Inc.QOC 6.8IPARInterparfums, Inc.QOC 9.3PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: HNST · SKIN · NWL · WALD · DQWS · PURE · BYAH · UG · SLSN · IPAR · PG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to COTY?

7 companies across all industries closest to COTY’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

BWBabcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.1NIHKVideo River Networks, Inc.QOC 6.1WRNWestern Copper and Gold CorporationQOC 6.1ARXAccelerant HoldingsQOC 6.1LODEComstock Inc.QOC 6.1SNDLSNDL Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BW · NIHK · WRN · ARX · LODE · SNDL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Coty Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Coty Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Coty Inc. (COTY)'s intrinsic value at $4.60 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.90 to $8.23. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.97 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is COTY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.85, 5 of 7 active models suggest COTY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $4.60, 61.3% above the current price of $2.85 — a consensus view that COTY is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Coty Inc.'s business model in Household & Personal Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for COTY?

Coty Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on COTY?

CirclFi analyzes COTY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on COTY?

Of the 7 models currently active on COTY, PWERM is the most bullish at $8.23 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $1.90. CirclFi's published fair value for COTY is the median of that range, $4.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is COTY a value trap in 2026?

Coty Inc.'s Value Trap score is 47/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Coty Inc. (COTY) has a median fair value of $4.60 — 61.3% above the current price of $2.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/COTY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this COTY valuation
  • Financial statements: Coty Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001024305) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for COTY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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