First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Fair Value 2026

BUSE · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, First Busey Corporation (BUSE) trades at $30.29, versus a $21.94 median fair value across its 6 active models — 27.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BUSE
Price
$30.29
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, First Busey Corporation (BUSE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $21.94, 27.6% below the current price of $30.29. Estimates range from $12.71 to $24.25. BUSE scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BUSE’s -27.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy First Busey Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BUSE?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.16 -50.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $20.75 -31.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.71 -58.0%
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What Is BUSE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $12.71 to $24.25

CirclFi's 6 active models place First Busey Corporation (BUSE) between $12.71 and $24.25 per share, a spread of 53% of the median. The median of that range — $21.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BUSE, against a current price of $30.29.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$12.71median $21.94$24.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$12.71
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$24.25
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BUSE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Busey Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $21.94, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $30.29. With 6 out of 6 models flagging downside (-27.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $24.25 (-19.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $12.71 (-58.0%). This +38.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First Busey Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BUSE?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BUSE. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BUSE is $21.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BUSE Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, BUSE ranks #184 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, First Busey Corporation competes in an environment where net interest margin (NIM) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BUSE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BUSE a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for First Busey Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, First Busey Corporation is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +38.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BUSE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BUSE's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Busey Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

ENBPENB Financial CorpQOC 8.0THFFFirst Financial CorporationQOC 7.9FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc.QOC 8.0EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.QOC 7.9RMBIRichmond Mutual Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 8.0CNOBConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9FNWDFinward BancorpQOC 7.4OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: ENBP · THFF · FISI · EBC · RMBI · CNOB · FNWD · OBT · SFBS · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BUSE?

5 companies across all industries closest to BUSE’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.QOC 7.9JFU9F Inc.QOC 8.0PTRNPattern Group Inc.QOC 8.0PRVAPrivia Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FG · JFU · PTRN · PRVA · NVDA

Where Does BUSE Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BUSE is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About First Busey Corporation’s Valuation?

What is First Busey Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts First Busey Corporation (BUSE)'s intrinsic value at $21.94 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.71 to $24.25. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BUSE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.29, 0 of 6 active models suggest BUSE may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $21.94, 27.6% below the current price of $30.29 — a consensus view that BUSE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Busey Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for BUSE?

First Busey Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BUSE?

CirclFi analyzes BUSE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BUSE?

Of the 6 models currently active on BUSE, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $24.25 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $12.71. CirclFi's published fair value for BUSE is the median of that range, $21.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 53% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BUSE a value trap in 2026?

First Busey Corporation's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, First Busey Corporation (BUSE) has a median fair value of $21.94 — 27.6% below the current price of $30.29 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BUSE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BUSE valuation
  • Financial statements: First Busey Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000314489) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BUSE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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