BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) Fair Value 2026

BLLN · Diagnostics & Research ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) trades at $93.24, versus a $19.76 median fair value across its 8 active models — 78.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
BLLN
Price
$93.24
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $19.76, 78.8% below the current price of $93.24. Estimates range from $14.71 to $25.62. BLLN scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BLLN’s -78.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Diagnostics & Research sector median is -55.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BillionToOne, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BLLN?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($93.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.41 -83.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.72 -79.9%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $20.81 -77.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.71 -84.2%
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What Is BLLN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $14.71 to $25.62

CirclFi's 8 active models place BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) between $14.71 and $25.62 per share, a spread of 55% of the median. The median of that range — $19.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BLLN, against a current price of $93.24.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$14.71median $19.76$25.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$14.71
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$25.62
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BLLN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BillionToOne, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.76. Trading at its current price of $93.24, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -78.8%.

What Do the Models Say About BLLN?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BLLN. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BLLN is $19.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.41 on its own, implying -83.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BLLN Rank in Diagnostics & Research?

Among 52 Diagnostics & Research stocks, BLLN ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

BillionToOne, Inc.'s positioning within the Diagnostics & Research segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including therapeutic area leadership — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BLLN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BLLN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for BillionToOne, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BillionToOne, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

Models cluster within a tight range (+11.7% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BLLN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BLLN's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BillionToOne, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Diagnostics & Research Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Diagnostics & Research stocks with 13-model coverage

TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.QOC 7.8WATWaters CorporationQOC 7.7DGXQuest Diagnostics IncorporatedQOC 7.9LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.QOC 7.7SHCSotera Health CompanyQOC 8.1LDDDLongduoduo Company LimitedQOC 7.5PRPOPrecipio, Inc.QOC 6.7OPKOPKO Health, Inc.QOC 5.6MDXHMDxHealth SAQOC 2.3IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.QOC 9.5MEDPMedpace Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: TMO · WAT · DGX · LH · SHC · LDDD · PRPO · OPK · MDXH · IDXX · MEDP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BLLN?

7 companies across all industries closest to BLLN’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.QOC 7.7BFSSaul Centers, Inc.QOC 7.7AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.QOC 7.7RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FMNB · BFS · AIG · GFS · MTW · RBBN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About BillionToOne, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is BillionToOne, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN)'s intrinsic value at $19.76 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.71 to $25.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BLLN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $93.24, 0 of 8 active models suggest BLLN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $19.76, 78.8% below the current price of $93.24 — a consensus view that BLLN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BillionToOne, Inc.'s business model in Diagnostics & Research.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for BLLN?

BillionToOne, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BLLN?

CirclFi analyzes BLLN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BLLN?

Of the 8 models currently active on BLLN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $25.62 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $14.71. CirclFi's published fair value for BLLN is the median of that range, $19.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 55% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BLLN a value trap in 2026?

BillionToOne, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN) has a median fair value of $19.76 — 78.8% below the current price of $93.24 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BLLN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BLLN valuation
  • Financial statements: BillionToOne, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002070849) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BLLN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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