ORIX Corporation (IX) Fair Value 2026

IX · Financial Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ORIX Corporation (IX) trades at $38.92, versus a $40.60 median fair value across its 5 active models — 4.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
IX
Price
$38.92
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +49.2% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is ORIX Corporation (IX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ORIX Corporation (IX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $40.60, within 4.3% of the current price of $38.92. Estimates range from $13.22 to $58.07. IX scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. IX’s +4.3% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ORIX Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IX?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($38.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.60 +4.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $58.07 +49.2%
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What Is IX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $13.22 to $58.07

CirclFi's 5 active models place ORIX Corporation (IX) between $13.22 and $58.07 per share, a spread of 110% of the median. The median of that range — $40.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IX, against a current price of $38.92.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Markov DDM
$13.22median $40.60$58.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$13.22
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$58.07
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ORIX Corporation (IX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ORIX Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $38.92. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $40.60 (+4.3% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 2 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $58.07 (+49.2%), versus Regime Cross at $13.22 (-66.0%). This +115.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About IX?

5 of 13 models are currently active for IX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IX is $40.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IX Rank in Financial Conglomerates?

Among 8 Financial Conglomerates stocks, IX ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

As a lending environment, ORIX Corporation operates in a sector where cost-to-income ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating IX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is IX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IX a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for ORIX Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ORIX Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IX's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ORIX Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Financial Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Financial Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

FRHCFreedom Holdings Corp.QOC 8.4VOYAVoya Financial, Inc.QOC 8.2TREELendingTree, Inc.QOC 7.9HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.QOC 7.0RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1FGCOFinancial Gravity Companies, Inc.QOC 5.9TMSTeamshares Inc.QOC 3.9

Read investment analysis: FRHC · VOYA · TREE · HTH · RILY · FGCO · TMS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IX?

7 companies across all industries closest to IX’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

REZIResideo Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7VBNKVersaBankQOC 7.7BHBBar Harbor BanksharesQOC 7.7DSXDiana Shipping Inc.QOC 7.7VPGVishay Precision Group, Inc.QOC 7.7AVYAvery Dennison CorporationQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: REZI · VBNK · BHB · DSX · VPG · AVY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ORIX Corporation’s Valuation?

What is ORIX Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ORIX Corporation (IX)'s intrinsic value at $40.60 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.22 to $58.07. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $38.92, 3 of 5 active models suggest IX may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $40.60, within 4.3% of the current price of $38.92 — a consensus view that IX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ORIX Corporation's business model in Financial Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for IX?

ORIX Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IX?

CirclFi analyzes IX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IX?

Of the 5 models currently active on IX, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $58.07 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $13.22. CirclFi's published fair value for IX is the median of that range, $40.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 110% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IX a value trap in 2026?

ORIX Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ORIX Corporation (IX) has a median fair value of $40.60 — within 4.3% of the current price of $38.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IX valuation
  • Financial statements: ORIX Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001070304) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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