What Is Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $55.31. Trading at $38.28, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +44.5%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $163.14 (+326.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $13.27 (-65.3%). This +391.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About HTH?
12 of 13 models are currently active for HTH. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HTH's intrinsic value at $163.14, implying +326.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does HTH Rank in State Commercial Banks?
Among 172 State Commercial Banks stocks, HTH ranks #133 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →
The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Hilltop Holdings Inc., metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is HTH a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTH a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Hilltop Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hilltop Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +391.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every HTH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across HTH's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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