Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Fair Value 2026

HTH · Financial Conglomerates ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) trades at $38.50, versus a $27.44 median fair value across its 6 active models — 28.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTH
Price
$38.50
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +18.2% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $27.44, 28.7% below the current price of $38.50. Estimates range from $9.84 to $45.50. HTH scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HTH’s -28.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hilltop Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HTH?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($38.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.81 -7.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $29.65 -23.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.50 +18.2%
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What Is HTH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $9.84 to $45.50

CirclFi's 6 active models place Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) between $9.84 and $45.50 per share, a spread of 130% of the median. The median of that range — $27.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HTH, against a current price of $38.50.

Low · FTNNHigh · Markov DDM
$9.84median $27.44$45.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$9.84
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$45.50
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HTH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HTH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $27.44. Trading at its current price of $38.50, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -28.7%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $45.50 (+18.2%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $9.84 (-74.4%). This +92.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTH?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HTH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HTH is $27.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTH Rank in Financial Conglomerates?

Among 8 Financial Conglomerates stocks, HTH ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

The Financial Conglomerates sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Hilltop Holdings Inc., metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HTH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTH a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Hilltop Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hilltop Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTH's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hilltop Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Financial Conglomerates Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Financial Conglomerates stocks with 13-model coverage

FRHCFreedom Holdings Corp.QOC 8.4VOYAVoya Financial, Inc.QOC 8.2TREELendingTree, Inc.QOC 7.9IXORIX CorporationQOC 7.7RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1FGCOFinancial Gravity Companies, Inc.QOC 5.9TMSTeamshares Inc.QOC 3.9

Read investment analysis: FRHC · VOYA · TREE · IX · RILY · FGCO · TMS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HTH?

7 companies across all industries closest to HTH’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

JVACoffee Holding Co., Inc.QOC 7.0FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.0WKWorkiva Inc.QOC 7.1FCCOFirst Community CorporationQOC 7.0AIPArteris, Inc.QOC 7.1STLYHG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JVA · FDUS · WK · FCCO · AIP · STLY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hilltop Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)'s intrinsic value at $27.44 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.84 to $45.50. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $38.50, 1 of 6 active models suggest HTH may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $27.44, 28.7% below the current price of $38.50 — a consensus view that HTH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s business model in Financial Conglomerates.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for HTH?

Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTH?

CirclFi analyzes HTH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HTH?

Of the 6 models currently active on HTH, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $45.50 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $9.84. CirclFi's published fair value for HTH is the median of that range, $27.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 130% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HTH a value trap in 2026?

Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) has a median fair value of $27.44 — 28.7% below the current price of $38.50 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HTH valuation
  • Financial statements: Hilltop Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001265131) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HTH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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