Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) Fair Value 2026

BHF · Insurance - Life ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) trades at $54.16, versus a $133.58 median fair value across its 6 active models — 146.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BHF
Price
$54.16
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +164.3% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $133.58, 146.6% above the current price of $54.16. Estimates range from $21.76 to $273.53. BHF scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BHF’s +146.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Life sector median is +10.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Brighthouse Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BHF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($54.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $101.64 +87.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $124.34 +129.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $143.17 +164.3%
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What Is BHF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $21.76 to $273.53

CirclFi's 6 active models place Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) between $21.76 and $273.53 per share, a spread of 188% of the median. The median of that range — $133.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BHF, against a current price of $54.16.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$21.76median $133.58$273.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$21.76
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$273.53
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BHF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BHF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Brighthouse Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $133.58. At a current market price of $54.16, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +146.6%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +405.0% (fair value: $273.53), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -59.8% ($21.76). The spread between these extremes — +464.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BHF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BHF. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BHF is $133.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BHF Rank in Insurance - Life?

Among 17 Insurance - Life stocks, BHF ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

The Insurance - Life sector introduces analytical considerations specific to underwriting business businesses. For Brighthouse Financial, Inc., metrics like investment float provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BHF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BHF a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Brighthouse Financial, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Brighthouse Financial, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +464.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BHF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BHF's 6 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Brighthouse Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Life Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Insurance - Life stocks with 13-model coverage

AFLAflac IncorporatedQOC 7.8PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.QOC 7.6MFCManulife Financial CorporationQOC 7.8LNCLincoln National CorporationQOC 7.5METMetLife, Inc.QOC 7.8CNOCNO Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.3UNMUnum GroupQOC 7.2PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.QOC 7.9GLGlobe Life Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: AFL · PRU · MFC · LNC · MET · CNO · UNM · PRI · FG · GL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BHF?

7 companies across all industries closest to BHF’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7HASIHA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.QOC 7.7VZVerizon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7AVYAvery Dennison CorporationQOC 7.7BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WYNN · HASI · VZ · MG · AVY · BTMD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Brighthouse Financial, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Brighthouse Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF)'s intrinsic value at $133.58 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $21.76 to $273.53. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BHF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $54.16, 5 of 6 active models suggest BHF may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $133.58, 146.6% above the current price of $54.16 — a consensus view that BHF is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Brighthouse Financial, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Life.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for BHF?

Brighthouse Financial, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BHF?

CirclFi analyzes BHF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BHF?

Of the 6 models currently active on BHF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $273.53 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $21.76. CirclFi's published fair value for BHF is the median of that range, $133.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 188% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BHF a value trap in 2026?

Brighthouse Financial, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF) has a median fair value of $133.58 — 146.6% above the current price of $54.16 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BHF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BHF valuation
  • Financial statements: Brighthouse Financial, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001685040) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BHF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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