Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Fair Value 2026

LNC · Insurance - Life ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) trades at $43.29, versus a $81.84 median fair value across its 6 active models — 89.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LNC
Price
$43.29
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +88.3% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $81.84, 89.0% above the current price of $43.29. Estimates range from $15.97 to $127.82. LNC scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LNC’s +89.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Life sector median is +10.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lincoln National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LNC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.99 +54.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $81.52 +88.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.97 -63.1%
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What Is LNC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $15.97 to $127.82

CirclFi's 6 active models place Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) between $15.97 and $127.82 per share, a spread of 137% of the median. The median of that range — $81.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LNC, against a current price of $43.29.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$15.97median $81.84$127.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$15.97
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$127.82
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LNC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LNC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lincoln National Corporation is potentially undervalued at its current price of $43.29. Based on our 13-model framework, Lincoln National Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $81.84 — representing +89.0% implied upside — with 5 out of 6 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $127.82 (+195.3%), versus Markov DDM at $15.97 (-63.1%). This +258.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LNC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for LNC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LNC is $81.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LNC Rank in Insurance - Life?

Among 17 Insurance - Life stocks, LNC ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a risk-bearing enterprise, Lincoln National Corporation operates in a sector where investment float is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating LNC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is LNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LNC a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Lincoln National Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Lincoln National Corporation is rated at 7.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +258.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LNC's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lincoln National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Life Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Life stocks with 13-model coverage

PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.QOC 7.6CNOCNO Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.3BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.QOC 7.7UNMUnum GroupQOC 7.2AFLAflac IncorporatedQOC 7.8GNWGenworth Financial, Inc.QOC 7.1AAMEAtlantic American CorporationQOC 6.6CIACitizens, Inc.QOC 8.1METMetLife, Inc.QOC 7.8PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 9.2GLGlobe Life Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: PRU · CNO · BHF · UNM · AFL · GNW · AAME · CIA · MET · PRI · GL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LNC?

7 companies across all industries closest to LNC’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

ZZillow Group, Inc.QOC 7.6RSReliance, Inc.QOC 7.5SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.QOC 7.5TSNTyson Foods, Inc.QOC 7.6IZEAIZEA Worldwide, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: Z · RS · SUNS · CBU · TSN · IZEA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lincoln National Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Lincoln National Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)'s intrinsic value at $81.84 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $15.97 to $127.82. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.29, 5 of 6 active models suggest LNC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $81.84, 89.0% above the current price of $43.29 — a consensus view that LNC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lincoln National Corporation's business model in Insurance - Life.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for LNC?

Lincoln National Corporation's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LNC?

CirclFi analyzes LNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LNC?

Of the 6 models currently active on LNC, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $127.82 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $15.97. CirclFi's published fair value for LNC is the median of that range, $81.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 137% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LNC a value trap in 2026?

Lincoln National Corporation's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) has a median fair value of $81.84 — 89.0% above the current price of $43.29 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LNC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LNC valuation
  • Financial statements: Lincoln National Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000059558) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LNC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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