MetLife, Inc. (MET) Fair Value 2026

MET · Life Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, MetLife, Inc. (MET) trades at $92.21, approximately 33% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $69.17. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MET
Price
$92.21
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +80.7% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is MetLife, Inc. (MET) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, MetLife, Inc. (MET) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $96.07, within 4.2% of the current price of $92.21. Estimates range from $27.70 to $536.04. MET scores 5.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MetLife, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($92.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $69.17 -25.0%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $57.39 -37.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $96.07 +4.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $166.63 +80.7%

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What Is MetLife, Inc. (MET) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MetLife, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $92.21. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $138.26 (+49.9% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Dynamic NAV targets $536.04 (+481.3%), versus Markov DDM at $27.70 (-70.0%). This +551.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MET?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MET. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MET's intrinsic value at $69.17, implying -25.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MET Rank in Life Insurance?

Among 28 Life Insurance stocks, MET ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Life Insurance sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For MetLife, Inc., metrics like loss ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MET a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MET a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for MetLife, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MetLife, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.5/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +551.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MET valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MET's 13 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MetLife, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Life Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Life Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

PRIPrimerica, Inc.QOC 10.0GLGlobe Life Inc.QOC 9.0FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.QOC 9.0FGNF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. 7.95QOC 8.7FGSNF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. 7.30QOC 8.7CIACitizens, Inc.QOC 8.0MFCManulife Financial CorporationQOC 7.9RZCReinsurance Group of America, IQOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: PRI · GL · FG · FGN · FGSN

Frequently Asked Questions About MetLife, Inc.

What is MetLife, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MetLife, Inc. (MET) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $69.17. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MET overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $92.21, 9 of 13 active models suggest MET may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $96.07, within 4.2% of the current price of $92.21 — a consensus view that MET is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MetLife, Inc.'s business model in Life Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for MET?

MetLife, Inc.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MET?

CirclFi analyzes MET with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MET a value trap in 2026?

MetLife, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, MetLife, Inc. (MET) has a median fair value of $96.07 — within 4.2% of the current price of $92.21 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MET/ · Methodology

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