BayCom Corp (BCML) Fair Value 2026

BCML · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, BayCom Corp (BCML) trades at $33.70, approximately 74% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $130.82. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BCML
Price
$33.70
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +288.2% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$130.82 +288.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$29.08 -13.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$90.80 +169.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$83.04 +146.4%

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What Is BayCom Corp (BCML) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BayCom Corp's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $78.92. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $33.70 (implied upside of +134.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 11 bullish models. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +381.5% (fair value: $162.27), while EPV is the most conservative at -13.7% ($29.08). The spread between these extremes — +395.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BCML?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BCML. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BCML's intrinsic value at $130.82, implying +288.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BCML Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, BCML ranks #108 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

BayCom Corp's positioning within the State Commercial Banks segment means that CET1 capital ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BCML a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BCML a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for BayCom Corp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BayCom Corp earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +395.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BCML valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BCML's 11 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BayCom Corp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About BayCom Corp

What is BayCom Corp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BayCom Corp (BCML) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $130.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BCML overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.70, 8 of 11 active models suggest BCML may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BayCom Corp's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for BCML?

BayCom Corp's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BCML?

CirclFi analyzes BCML with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BCML a value trap in 2026?

BayCom Corp's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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