Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Fair Value 2026

AXSM · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) trades at $199.02, versus a $21.66 median fair value across its 2 active models — 89.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXSM
Price
$199.02
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $21.66, 89.1% below the current price of $199.02. Estimates range from $13.33 to $29.99. AXSM scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AXSM’s -89.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AXSM?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($199.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $29.99 -84.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $13.33 -93.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $21.66, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $199.02. With 2 out of 2 models flagging downside (-89.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About AXSM?

2 of 13 models are currently active for AXSM. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AXSM is $21.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXSM Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, AXSM ranks #80 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Within the Biotechnology space, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where cash runway (months) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AXSM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXSM a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

Models cluster within a tight range (+8.4% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXSM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXSM's 2 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.6ZEOXZeo ScientifiX, Inc.QOC 6.6NTRBNutriband Inc.QOC 6.6TVTXTravere Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5WVEWave Life Sciences, Inc.QOC 6.6VIRVir Biotechnology, Inc.QOC 6.5NBPNovaBridge BiosciencesQOC 5.4TYRATyra Biosciences, Inc.QOC 4.7RNAZTransCode Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.9EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: ACRS · ZEOX · NTRB · TVTX · WVE · VIR · NBP · TYRA · RNAZ · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AXSM?

7 companies across all industries closest to AXSM’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 6.6COE51Talk Online Education GroupQOC 6.6AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.QOC 6.6MAGNMagnera CorporationQOC 6.6BOCBoston Omaha CorporationQOC 6.6RYAMRayonier Advanced Materials Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GEVO · COE · AAOI · MAGN · BOC · RYAM · NVDA

Where Does AXSM Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

AXSM is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM)'s intrinsic value at $21.66 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.33 to $29.99. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXSM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $199.02, 0 of 2 active models suggest AXSM may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $21.66, 89.1% below the current price of $199.02 — a consensus view that AXSM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for AXSM?

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXSM?

CirclFi analyzes AXSM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AXSM a value trap in 2026?

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) has a median fair value of $21.66 — 89.1% below the current price of $199.02 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AXSM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AXSM valuation
  • Financial statements: Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001579428) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AXSM as of ; valuations recomputed .