What Is Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $70.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $235.26. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-70.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +3.8% (fair value: $244.22), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -99.9% ($0.12). The spread between these extremes — +103.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About AXSM?
12 of 13 models are currently active for AXSM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AXSM's intrinsic value at $113.69, implying -51.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AXSM Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?
Among 469 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, AXSM ranks #84 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →
Within the Pharmaceutical Preparations space, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. competes in an environment where FDA approval probability often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is AXSM a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXSM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +103.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AXSM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AXSM's 12 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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