SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) Fair Value 2026

SGP · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) trades at $20.60, approximately 148% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.32. QOC: 4.9/10. 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SGP
Price
$20.60
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +57.0% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $9.91, 51.9% below the current price of $20.60. Estimates range from $5.16 to $32.34. SGP scores 4.9/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $8.32 -59.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $9.91 -51.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $32.34 +57.0%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $15.71. Trading at $20.60, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -23.7%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $32.34 (+57.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $5.16 (-74.9%). This +131.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SGP?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SGP. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SGP's intrinsic value at $8.32, implying -59.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SGP Rank in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus?

Among 109 Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks, SGP ranks #90 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks →

SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SGP a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SGP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. earns a quality score of 4.9/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SGP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SGP's 7 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 10.0IRMDiRadimed CorporationQOC 10.0PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 10.0RMDResMed Inc.QOC 10.0WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, IQOC 9.9HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 9.8LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.8GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: DXCM · IRMD · PODD · RMD · WST

See all Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.

What is SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.32. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SGP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.60, 2 of 7 active models suggest SGP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $9.91, 51.9% below the current price of $20.60 — a consensus view that SGP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s business model in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for SGP?

SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SGP?

CirclFi analyzes SGP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SGP a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SGP at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, SpyGlass Pharma, Inc. (SGP) has a median fair value of $9.91 — 51.9% below the current price of $20.60 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SGP/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SGP.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access