Tenon Medical, Inc. (TNON) Fair Value 2026

TNON · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Tenon Medical, Inc. (TNON) trades at $0.20, approximately 39% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.33. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TNON
Price
$0.20
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +379.3% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.33 +63.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $0.83 +305.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $0.63 +208.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $0.98 +379.3%

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What Is Tenon Medical, Inc. (TNON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenon Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $0.67. At a current market price of $0.20, 10 of 10 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +228.0%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +379.3% (fair value: $0.98), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at +55.6% ($0.32). The spread between these extremes — +323.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TNON?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TNON. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates TNON's intrinsic value at $0.33, implying +63.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TNON Rank in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus?

Among 117 Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks, TNON ranks #44 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks →

Tenon Medical, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TNON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TNON a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Tenon Medical, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tenon Medical, Inc. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +323.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TNON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TNON's 10 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenon Medical, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

DXCMDexCom, Inc.QOC 10.0IRMDiRadimed CorporationQOC 10.0PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 10.0RMDResMed Inc.QOC 10.0WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, IQOC 9.9HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 9.8LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.8GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: DXCM · IRMD · PODD · RMD · WST

See all Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Tenon Medical, Inc.

What is Tenon Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tenon Medical, Inc. (TNON) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.33. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TNON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.20, 10 of 10 active models suggest TNON may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenon Medical, Inc.'s business model in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for TNON?

Tenon Medical, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TNON?

CirclFi analyzes TNON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TNON a value trap in 2026?

Tenon Medical, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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