Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR) Fair Value 2026

ALUR · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (63/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR) trades at $1.52. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 63/100 (DANGER). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALUR
Price
$1.52
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
63/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +262.2% upside with 29% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 63 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALUR?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $5.51 +262.2%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Allurion Technologies Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $1.52. Based on our 13-model framework, Allurion Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.51 — representing +262.2% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALUR?

1 of 13 models are currently active for ALUR. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALUR Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 157 Medical Devices stocks, ALUR ranks #129 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Devices Stocks →

Allurion Technologies Inc.'s positioning within the Medical Devices segment means that patent cliff exposure plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALUR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALUR a score of 63/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Allurion Technologies Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Allurion Technologies Inc. earns a quality score of 4.8/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. However, our Value Trap algorithm flags elevated risk — suggesting that apparent cheapness may mask deteriorating fundamentals.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALUR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALUR's 1 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Allurion Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

TRIBTrinity Biotech plcQOC 4.8AEMDAethlon Medical, Inc.QOC 4.7FEEDENvue Medical, Inc.QOC 4.8RMSLREMSleep Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.6MBOTMicrobot Medical Inc.QOC 4.9PAVMPAVmed Inc.QOC 4.6PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.0AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: TRIB · AEMD · FEED · RMSL · MBOT · PAVM · PEN · MXCT · AIDX · IRMD · PODD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALUR?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALUR’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

MLYSMineralys Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8ATOSAtossa Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8POLAPolar Power, Inc.QOC 4.8RGCRegencell Bioscience Holdings LimitedQOC 4.8LYELLyell Immunopharma, Inc.QOC 4.8XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MLYS · ATOS · POLA · RGC · LYEL · XXI · NVDA

Where Does ALUR Sit in CirclFi's Medical Devices Rankings?

ALUR is ranked against every other Medical Devices stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Devices stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Allurion Technologies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Allurion Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR). The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALUR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.52, 1 of 1 active models suggest ALUR may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Allurion Technologies Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for ALUR?

Allurion Technologies Inc.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALUR?

CirclFi analyzes ALUR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALUR a value trap in 2026?

Allurion Technologies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 63/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR) a Quality of Company score of 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALUR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALUR valuation
  • Financial statements: Allurion Technologies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001964979) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALUR as of ; valuations recomputed .