Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Fair Value 2026

TNL · Travel Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) trades at $71.21, versus a $100.67 median fair value across its 9 active models — 41.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $130.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
TNL
Price
$71.21
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +388.3% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $100.67, 41.4% above the current price of $71.21. Estimates range from $40.36 to $347.72. TNL scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TNL’s +41.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Travel Services sector median is -4.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Travel + Leisure Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TNL?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $130.69 +83.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $113.70 +59.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $347.72 +388.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $85.72 +20.4%
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What Is TNL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $40.36 to $347.72

CirclFi's 9 active models place Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) between $40.36 and $347.72 per share, a spread of 305% of the median. The median of that range — $100.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TNL, against a current price of $71.21.

Low · PWERMHigh · First Chicago
$40.36median $100.67$347.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$40.36
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$347.72
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TNL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TNL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Travel + Leisure Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $100.67. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $71.21 (implied upside of +41.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +388.3% (fair value: $347.72), while PWERM is the most conservative at -43.3% ($40.36). The spread between these extremes — +431.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TNL?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TNL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TNL is $100.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $130.69 on its own, implying +83.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TNL Rank in Travel Services?

Among 19 Travel Services stocks, TNL ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Travel + Leisure Co. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TNL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TNL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Travel + Leisure Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Travel + Leisure Co. scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +431.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TNL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TNL's 9 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Travel + Leisure Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Travel Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Travel Services stocks with 13-model coverage

TRIPTripadvisor, Inc.QOC 8.0GBTGGlobal Business Travel Group, Inc.QOC 7.7PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.QOC 8.1TOURTuniu CorporationQOC 7.6RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.2LINDLindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.QOC 7.3VIKViking Holdings LtdQOC 2.8MMYTMakeMyTrip LimitedQOC 8.4ABNBAirbnb, Inc.QOC 9.5EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: TRIP · GBTG · PRSU · TOUR · RCL · LIND · NCLH · VIK · MMYT · ABNB · EXPE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TNL?

7 companies across all industries closest to TNL’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

VBNKVersaBankQOC 7.7VPGVishay Precision Group, Inc.QOC 7.7COHNCohen & Company Inc.QOC 7.7BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.QOC 7.7WAYWaystar Holding Corp.QOC 7.7BHBBar Harbor BanksharesQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VBNK · VPG · COHN · BHF · WAY · BHB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Travel + Leisure Co.’s Valuation?

What is Travel + Leisure Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)'s intrinsic value at $100.67 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $40.36 to $347.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $130.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TNL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.21, 7 of 9 active models suggest TNL may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $100.67, 41.4% above the current price of $71.21 — a consensus view that TNL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Travel + Leisure Co.'s business model in Travel Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for TNL?

Travel + Leisure Co.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TNL?

CirclFi analyzes TNL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TNL?

Of the 9 models currently active on TNL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $347.72 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $40.36. CirclFi's published fair value for TNL is the median of that range, $100.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 305% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TNL a value trap in 2026?

Travel + Leisure Co.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) has a median fair value of $100.67 — 41.4% above the current price of $71.21 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TNL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TNL valuation
  • Financial statements: Travel + Leisure Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001361658) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TNL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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