Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Fair Value 2026

RBLX · Electronic Gaming & Multimedia ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) trades at $38.53, versus a $13.81 median fair value across its 3 active models — 64.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $26.95.

Key Facts

Ticker
RBLX
Price
$38.53
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: 3 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $13.81, 64.2% below the current price of $38.53. Estimates range from $7.41 to $26.95. RBLX scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. RBLX’s -64.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Roblox Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RBLX?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($38.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.95 -30.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.81 -64.2%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $7.41 -80.8%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is RBLX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $7.41 to $26.95

CirclFi's 3 active models place Roblox Corporation (RBLX) between $7.41 and $26.95 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $13.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RBLX, against a current price of $38.53.

Low · FTNNHigh · Bayesian DCF
$7.41median $13.81$26.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$7.41
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$26.95
Model agreement0 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RBLX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RBLX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Roblox Corporation (RBLX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Roblox Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $13.81. Trading at its current price of $38.53, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 3 of 3 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -64.2%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $26.95 (-30.1%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $7.41 (-80.8%). This +50.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Roblox Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RBLX?

3 of 13 models are currently active for RBLX. All 3 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for RBLX is $13.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $26.95 on its own, implying -30.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RBLX Rank in Electronic Gaming & Multimedia?

Among 22 Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, RBLX ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Roblox Corporation's positioning within the Electronic Gaming & Multimedia segment means that average revenue per user (ARPU) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including spectrum monetization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is RBLX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RBLX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Roblox Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Roblox Corporation earns a quality score of 7.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +50.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RBLX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RBLX's 3 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Roblox Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electronic Gaming & Multimedia Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks with 13-model coverage

MYPSPLAYSTUDIOS, Inc.QOC 7.2CTWCTWQOC 7.0MSGMMotorsport Games Inc.QOC 7.4SOHUSohu.com LimitedQOC 6.7TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc.QOC 7.7PLTKPlaytika Holding Corp.QOC 6.3FIRYFiry Inc.QOC 5.8GMERGood Gaming, Inc.QOC 4.2GMHSGamehaus Holdings Inc.QOC 2.1NTESNetEase, Inc.QOC 9.7GRVYGravity Co., Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: MYPS · CTW · MSGM · SOHU · TTWO · PLTK · FIRY · GMER · GMHS · NTES · GRVY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RBLX?

7 companies across all industries closest to RBLX’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

GNWGenworth Financial, Inc.QOC 7.1BRLTBrilliant Earth Group, Inc.QOC 7.1KNOPKNOT Offshore Partners LPQOC 7.1LGLThe LGL Group, Inc.QOC 7.1SHENShenandoah Telecommunications CompanyQOC 7.1PHGKoninklijke Philips N.V.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GNW · BRLT · KNOP · LGL · SHEN · PHG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Roblox Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Roblox Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Roblox Corporation (RBLX)'s intrinsic value at $13.81 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.41 to $26.95. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $26.95 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RBLX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $38.53, 0 of 3 active models suggest RBLX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $13.81, 64.2% below the current price of $38.53 — a consensus view that RBLX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Roblox Corporation's business model in Electronic Gaming & Multimedia.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for RBLX?

Roblox Corporation's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RBLX?

CirclFi analyzes RBLX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RBLX?

Of the 3 models currently active on RBLX, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $26.95 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $7.41. CirclFi's published fair value for RBLX is the median of that range, $13.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RBLX a value trap in 2026?

Roblox Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) has a median fair value of $13.81 — 64.2% below the current price of $38.53 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RBLX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RBLX valuation
  • Financial statements: Roblox Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001315098) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RBLX as of ; valuations recomputed .