Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Fair Value 2026

NXST · Broadcasting ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) trades at $179.86, versus a $251.66 median fair value across its 10 active models — 39.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $385.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
NXST
Price
$179.86
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +114.4% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $251.66, 39.9% above the current price of $179.86. Estimates range from $40.94 to $385.59. NXST scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NXST’s +39.9% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NXST?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($179.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $385.59 +114.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $245.97 +36.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $180.73 +0.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $314.80 +75.0%
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What Is NXST's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $40.94 to $385.59

CirclFi's 10 active models place Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) between $40.94 and $385.59 per share, a spread of 137% of the median. The median of that range — $251.66 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NXST, against a current price of $179.86.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$40.94median $251.66$385.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$40.94
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$385.59
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NXST. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NXST, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Nexstar Media Group, Inc. at $179.86. With an estimated intrinsic value of $251.66 and 6 of 10 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +39.9%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $385.59 (+114.4%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $40.94 (-77.2%). This +191.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NXST?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NXST. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NXST is $251.66 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $385.59 on its own, implying +114.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NXST Rank in Broadcasting?

Among 18 Broadcasting stocks, NXST ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a telecommunications sector, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates in a sector where fiber/5G penetration is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NXST should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NXST a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NXST a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Nexstar Media Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +191.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NXST valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NXST's 10 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Broadcasting Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Broadcasting stocks with 13-model coverage

CASTFreeCast, Inc.QOC 3.3SGASaga Communications, Inc.QOC 6.8MLMCMike Lindell Media, Corp.QOC 4.2GTNGray Media, Inc.QOC 6.6UONEUrban One, Inc.QOC 4.8CURICuriosityStream Inc.QOC 6.6IHRTiHeartMedia, Inc.QOC 6.2SBGISinclair, Inc.QOC 5.9TAAGThe Awareness Group IncQOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: CAST · SGA · MLMC · GTN · UONE · CURI · IHRT · SBGI · TAAG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NXST?

7 companies across all industries closest to NXST’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

PCGPG&E CorporationQOC 7.2ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2CULLCullman Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2AHRTAH REALTY TRUST INCQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PCG · ZUMZ · CVI · YORW · CULL · AHRT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nexstar Media Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)'s intrinsic value at $251.66 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $40.94 to $385.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $385.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NXST overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $179.86, 7 of 10 active models suggest NXST may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $251.66, 39.9% above the current price of $179.86 — a consensus view that NXST is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s business model in Broadcasting.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for NXST?

Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NXST?

CirclFi analyzes NXST with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NXST?

Of the 10 models currently active on NXST, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $385.59 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $40.94. CirclFi's published fair value for NXST is the median of that range, $251.66, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 137% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NXST a value trap in 2026?

Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) has a median fair value of $251.66 — 39.9% above the current price of $179.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NXST/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NXST valuation
  • Financial statements: Nexstar Media Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001142417) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NXST as of ; valuations recomputed .

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