Mediaco Holding Inc. (MDIA) Fair Value 2026

MDIA · Radio Broadcasting Stations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (51/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Mediaco Holding Inc. (MDIA) trades at $1.02. QOC: 4.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 51/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDIA
Price
$1.02
Quality Score
4.2/10
Value Trap Risk
51/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +16.3% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 51 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$0.53 -48.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$1.19 +16.3%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$0.27 -73.7%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
$0.04 -96.4%

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What Is Mediaco Holding Inc. (MDIA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mediaco Holding Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.73, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $1.02. With an average implied return of -28.3% across a split 3–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +121.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +24.9% (fair value: $1.27), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -96.4% ($0.04). The spread between these extremes — +121.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MDIA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MDIA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDIA Rank in Radio Broadcasting Stations?

Among 10 Radio Broadcasting Stations stocks, MDIA ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a telecom operator, Mediaco Holding Inc. operates in a sector where capital intensity ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MDIA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MDIA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDIA a score of 51/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Mediaco Holding Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Mediaco Holding Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.2/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDIA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDIA's 8 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mediaco Holding Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Radio Broadcasting Stations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Radio Broadcasting Stations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: TME · SPOT · SIRI · SGA · TSQ

Frequently Asked Questions About Mediaco Holding Inc.

What is Mediaco Holding Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Mediaco Holding Inc. (MDIA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 4.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDIA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.02, 4 of 8 active models suggest MDIA may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mediaco Holding Inc.'s business model in Radio Broadcasting Stations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.2 mean for MDIA?

Mediaco Holding Inc.'s QOC of 4.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDIA?

CirclFi analyzes MDIA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDIA a value trap in 2026?

Mediaco Holding Inc.'s Value Trap score is 51/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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