Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Fair Value 2026

ICE · Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) trades at $137.67, approximately 5% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $144.69. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ICE
Price
$137.67
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +48.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($137.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$144.69 +5.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$45.52 -66.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$117.45 -14.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$204.42 +48.5%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $137.67. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $125.20 (-9.1% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $232.29 (+68.7%), versus EROIC at $43.04 (-68.7%). This +137.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ICE?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ICE. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ICE's intrinsic value at $144.69, implying +5.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ICE Rank in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services?

Among 14 Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services stocks, ICE ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ICE in the top tier.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ICE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ICE a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Intercontinental Exchange Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ICE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ICE's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CBOE · TW · MRX · CME · SNEX

Frequently Asked Questions About Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

What is Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $144.69. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ICE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $137.67, 4 of 12 active models suggest ICE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s business model in Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ICE?

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ICE?

CirclFi analyzes ICE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ICE a value trap in 2026?

Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ICE.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access